$1,000,000 defense battle: Bitcoin is not crashing this time, but undergoing a structural transformation

What happened on November 5, 2025? Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time in four years, dropping as low as $98,900. But this time is different — it’s not a technical dip caused by leveraged liquidations, but a strategic retreat led by "old money."

The most warning signals are hidden on-chain: over the past month, long-term holders (LTH) sold approximately 400,000 BTC, worth $45 billion. This is one of the largest sustained sell-offs in history. Even more bizarre, these "diamond hands" used to profit from rapid rallies and hold through volatility, but now they are selling more as prices fall. Is confidence collapsing? Or are they simply exhausted?

Three cold currents are hitting simultaneously. Demand for US spot ETFs has dried up, with over $2 billion net outflows in the past two weeks, and institutional enthusiasm has plummeted; the spot market is dominated by sellers, and exchange trading volume differences (CVD) have continued to decline — where has the active buying gone? Looking at derivatives, perpetual contract premiums have plummeted 65%, indicating rapid deleveraging.

On the technical side? Breaking below the 365-day moving average at around $102,000 has triggered a long-term trend warning. But on the other hand, 71% of supply remains above water, which looks more like a healthy correction in mid-bull rather than a deep bear market. Galaxy Digital offers a new perspective: Bitcoin has entered a "mature era" — retail speculation is retreating, institutions are taking over, volatility is decreasing, and the upward trend is becoming more solid.

The next 1-2 months are a critical window. Can Bitcoin retake the short-term holder cost basis at around $112,500? That will be a test of demand returning. If it fails to hold the $100,000 psychological level, the next support could be near $88,500.

The market hasn't collapsed — it’s just a new group of players taking the lead.