#美联储如期降息25基点

The "dovish tone" of interest rate cuts: investors are smiling, and so is inflation.

The Federal Reserve has finally put down its hawkish claws and cut interest rates by 25 basis points—investors are finally smiling, but the ghost of inflation is also chuckling in the shadows. History tells us that every time the Fed makes a "gentle turn," risk assets rise first, followed by a rise in prices. This rate cut is mainly a response to the real pressures of credit contraction and cooling consumption, seen as a correction to the earlier "high interest rate side effects." The problem is that the U.S. fiscal policy is still expanding in a flood-like manner, and the supply chain is once again facing turbulence due to geopolitical risks, meaning inflation may not behave itself. In the short term, the stock market, gold, and cryptocurrencies are all welcoming the "policy spring breeze," with the dollar being rubbed down to the ground. However, in the long run, these 25 basis points may just be a "sedative" for the market, not a "curative medicine." If CPI remains high in the next two quarters, this "dovish dance" by the Fed may be forced to end, and they may put the hawk hat back on. The laughter of investors now may be the prelude to the next round of volatility.