#十月降息预测 Fed interest rate cut is a done deal! Next week will be a key window for market trends, while the technical aspect still appears weak.

The Fed's interest rate cut in October has entered the "certain stage". According to the latest data from CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the October meeting has surged to 99%, while the remaining 1% points to a larger cut of 50 basis points, indicating that the market has regarded a "100% rate cut" as a given.

The interest rate cut decision will be announced at 10:00 Beijing time on October 29, which also means that next week will be the last window period for the market to speculate around "interest rate cut expectations". From the historical market pattern, if during the critical warm-up period before the policy implementation, the market index continues to maintain its current "ill" oscillating state without being able to break out of a trending market due to positive expectations, then after the interest rate cut is implemented, it is highly likely that there will be a "profit-taking" pressure, and the subsequent trend is not optimistic.

The technical analysis currently lacks clear signals for bullish positions, and the market is caught in a stalemate between bulls and bears. From the 15-minute short cycle perspective, Bitcoin (BTC) is in a critical state of directional choice, with both bullish and bearish forces balanced, resulting in a 50% probability for both upward and downward movements, making it difficult to find clear breakthrough clues in the short term; meanwhile, the charts for the medium to long-term cycles of 4 hours and above are completely in a bearish trend, with the moving average system showing a bearish arrangement, and trading volume continuing to shrink, with no sign of any stabilization at the bottom or reversal of trend in terms of technical formations.

What is even more concerning is that the current market is still shrouded in multiple "news fogs." On one hand, China and the U.S. will start a new round of trade negotiations next week, and the positions of both sides on key issues such as tariffs and market access could directly affect the global risk asset sentiment, which in turn could transmit to the crypto market; on the other hand, the previous U.S. government shutdown led to delays in the release of key macro indicators such as non-farm payroll data and CPI data, compounded by the pending approval results of Bitcoin ETFs and other core industry news. These "pending variables" could either become catalysts for market trends or trigger severe volatility if the outcomes fall short of expectations.

From the perspective of liquidity, the current main funds in the crypto market are still in a wait-and-see state. Taking Bitcoin as an example, the frequency of large on-chain transfers (single transactions over 1000 BTC) has decreased by 18% compared to the previous week, and the net inflow to exchanges has reduced by 23%, reflecting that institutions and whales generally choose to "stay put" before key news is released, which further exacerbates the uncertainty of the short-term market.