On Polymarket, the probability related to WTI crude oil touching $120 in April 2026 has recently risen sharply, and it is currently at 65%. The settlement rules for this prediction contract are: within the specified time, if the price reaches or exceeds $120, then it is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No".

Polymarket predictions show that a certain address invested $4,500 with a 77% win rate to purchase the "yes" option for the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal, with the current probability at 25%. Iraq and Iran are negotiating tanker passage safety and considering resuming pipeline operations, with the UAE potentially participating in international action to secure the strait.

Nasdaq plans to launch a binary options contract that allows "yes or no" bets on major stock indices, becoming a new player in the prediction market. The contract's pricing will range from $0.01 to $1.00, reflecting market sentiment on the event outcome, and is currently awaiting SEC approval.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to CoinDesk, since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, there have been over a dozen Iran-related contracts on the prediction market Polymarket. The prediction market for the fall of Khamenei alone has attracted $45 million in trading volume. The trader account with the highest trading volume is named “Curseaaaaaaa,” who profited $757,000 by betting “Yes.” Four other traders also achieved six-figure gains.