Gate News reports that on March 17, Polymarket prediction market data showed that the probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31 has dropped to 25%, a decrease of 29 percentage points from last week. The trading volume for this event approached $250,000.
Background information indicates that the Houthi armed forces are the main group controlling northern Yemen. Recently, Houthi leaders publicly stated they are “ready to launch attacks at any time” and threatened to intervene in the conflict or impact Red Sea shipping. Meanwhile, Israel has begun planning a military deployment in the Red Sea to counter the Houthi threat, but neither side has yet engaged in a new round of large-scale direct airstrikes.
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