2026 Oscar Winners Announced! Polymarket Surges with $200 Million in Volume, Someone Wins Big Prize Worth Around 5 Million Taiwan Dollars

2026 Oscars Announced: “Oppenheimer” Wins 6 Major Awards Including Best Picture. Prediction platform Polymarket sees over NT$2 billion in betting volume, with traders accurately predicting the upset victory of Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor, earning approximately NT$2.8 million in a single bet.

2026 98th Academy Awards Winners Announced!

The world’s premier film event, the 98th Academy Awards of 2026, finally announced its winners today (3/16). This year, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Oppenheimer” took home 6 awards, including Best Picture, becoming the biggest winner. Meanwhile, “The Sinner,” which received 16 nominations, won 4 awards, and the globally popular “K-POP Witch Group” from 2025 secured Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song.

Below are the main winners of the 98th Academy Awards in 2026:

• Best Picture: “Oppenheimer”
• Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, “Oppenheimer”
• Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan, “The Sinner”
• Best Actress: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
• Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn, “Oppenheimer”
• Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan, “The Weapon”
• Best Original Screenplay: “The Sinner”
• Best Adapted Screenplay: “Oppenheimer”
• Best Cinematography: “The Sinner”

2026 Oscars Polymarket Predictions and Trader Profits

Before the ceremony, betting on the blockchain prediction market platform Polymarket attracted massive funds. As of March 16, the combined trading volume for the five major categories—Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress, and Best Original Screenplay—exceeded US$62 million (about NT$2 billion).

Data from Polymarket shows that prediction trends for each award diverged from the final results, creating different market sentiments and allowing some traders to earn substantial profits.

Best Actor: Prediction Missed

For Best Actor, Timothée Chalamet, nicknamed “Timmy,” saw his winning probability rise steadily over recent months, reaching nearly 80%. Michael B. Jordan’s chances initially surpassed Timmy’s but later fell to second place.

However, the actual winner was Michael B. Jordan, contrary to the market predictions. In a market reversal, trader NeoWick accurately bet on Jordan, securing a profit of up to US$87,209 (about NT$2.8 million) from a single prediction contract.

Best Actress: Prediction Success

In the Best Actress category, NeoWick also achieved a perfect prediction. Unlike the volatile male category, Jessie Buckley’s chances remained relatively stable, staying above 75% since October last year and steadily approaching 100% before the ceremony.

The trader NeoWick again profited, earning US$63,158 (about NT$2 million) from this prediction.

Best Picture: Prediction Success

For Best Picture, “Oppenheimer” had a roughly 50% chance from October to November last year. It then surpassed 75% in December and maintained a lead, successfully predicting the final outcome. Trader AML bet on “Oppenheimer” and earned US$42,689 in profit.

Best Director: Prediction Success

In Best Director, Paul Thomas Anderson’s chances remained between 75% and 100% for most of the time. Trader cry.eth2 secured US$20,534 from this prediction.

Best Original Screenplay: Prediction Success

For Best Original Screenplay, “The Value of Emotions” had a high early probability, while “The Sinner” remained low until late December. It then surged in January, crossing the threshold.

Trader kutar. accurately bet on “The Sinner” winning, ultimately earning US$16,618.

2026 Oscars Sets Multiple Records in Film History

The nominations and winners this year set several historic milestones.

According to GQ Taiwan, Ryan Coogler’s “The Sinner” received 16 nominations, breaking the previous record held jointly by “Beauty and the Beast,” “Titanic,” and “La La Land” for most nominations in Oscar history.

Many filmmakers also achieved career breakthroughs. Paul Thomas Anderson, who had been nominated 11 times without a win, finally took home Best Director and Best Picture for “Oppenheimer,” shot in VistaVision.

In technical and acting categories, “The Sinner” cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw made history as the first woman to win the Oscar for Best Cinematography.

In “The Weapon,” Amy Madigan, with only 15 minutes of screen time, won Best Supporting Actress. She was last nominated in 1986, making her the actor with the longest gap between nominations and wins in Oscar history.

This also proves that screen time isn’t the key to winning. Anthony Hopkins won Best Actor for “The Silence of the Lambs” in 1992 with less than 30 minutes on screen.

Additionally, musician Ludwig Göransson won his third Oscar for “The Sinner,” and actor Michael B. Jordan, for his dual role in the film, received his first Oscar, making this year’s awards highly talked about. Polymarket also achieved high accuracy in predicting major categories.

Further Reading:
2026 Grammy: Host jokes about Polymarket’s “Potato” joke, why did it become the best marketing?

2025 TGA Winners Announced: Polymarket traders bet NT$40 million, which awards did they predict correctly?