Three high-profit accounts invested $13,300, betting that Israel will launch a large-scale ground offensive in Lebanon this month.

Gate News reports that on March 12, a prediction market platform showed that three accounts, which together earned over 70% of their total profits from this round of the Iran conflict, invested a total of $13,300 in the option “Israel will launch a large-scale ground offensive against Lebanon before March 31.” The current probability of this event is 68.5%.

After the US and Israel jointly launched a large-scale decapitation strike on Iran, hardline military factions within Israel believe that this is the best strategic window to clear out Hezbollah’s front-line forces in Lebanon. However, as Trump has recently been promoting that “military actions have met expectations” to stabilize oil prices and cool down Middle East tensions, the US is highly resistant to being drawn into a prolonged security conflict in the Lebanese mountainous region. Additionally, Israel’s ongoing operations in Gaza have already consumed significant resources. Forcing a second ground campaign in the north at this time would strain troop deployment, logistics, ammunition supplies, and casualty management.

Based on their past trading patterns, this trader does not seem to be betting on whether the event will actually happen but rather engaging in opening and closing positions at certain points for profit-taking or stop-loss.

Related account addresses: 0x2c55621871b5cedb336bc509dd93e61568f6dbb9, 0xdbedc5ab35d896d3226c6ea5e1708dfc631f10f7, 0x6062830c5a8a453cb57048da505234aaca304084.