Bitcoin Valuation Model Revealed: PlanB Predicts an Average Price of $500,000 per Cycle, Sparking Market Debate

On March 10, it was reported that Bitcoin’s current trading price is close to $67,300, down from the recent high of $74,000. A well-known analyst, PlanB, stated that based on the scarcity model, during the 2024-2028 halving cycle, Bitcoin’s average price could be around $500,000, with a volatility range between $250,000 and $1 million. The core assumption of this model is that, due to the slowdown in Bitcoin supply growth caused by halving events and stable or increasing demand, the price will trend higher over the long term. The last halving occurred in April 2024, and historical data shows that each halving has typically been followed by significant price increases, which is one of the bases for PlanB’s prediction.

However, not all analysts agree. Bobby A pointed out that Bitcoin might reach between $200,000 and $250,000 around 2026 to 2027, which is higher than the current level but well below PlanB’s median forecast. He believes that the Stock-to-Flow model can serve as a reference for long-term trends but is difficult to accurately predict short-term price movements, especially in complex market environments where macro factors, investor sentiment, and on-chain activity can have immediate impacts.

In recent years, Bitcoin’s price has not fully followed the predictions of the stock-to-flow model, leading some market participants to question its accuracy. Nonetheless, some analysts emphasize that the Stock-to-Flow model is not designed as an exact price prediction tool but rather as a framework to illustrate the relationship between Bitcoin’s scarcity and its potential value. Overall, market interpretations of Bitcoin’s future price remain diverse, and investors should pay attention to halving cycles, supply and demand changes, and overall market dynamics.