GateUser-08e8a608

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Powell steps down but does not retire—first time since 1948
More interesting than the FOMC itself is what Jerome Powell said at his last press conference as chairman:
"After my term ends on May 15th, I will continue to serve as a director for a period of time. I plan to stay low profile."
What does this mean?
Powell’s 14-year term as a director doesn’t end until January 2028. He chose to remain as a director after stepping down as chairman, which is the first time a Federal Reserve chairman has done so since 1948.
Historically, almost all Fed chairmen resign from the board after stepping down. Powell has broken this 78-year tradition.
Why?
The answer lies in the DOJ investigation. The U.S. Department of Justice previously launched a criminal investigation into the Fed’s headquarters renovation project—Powell himself proactively submitted this matter to the Fed Inspector General. On April 24th, the criminal investigation was just closed. Powell explicitly stated: "I will not leave the board until the investigation is fully and thoroughly concluded."
This is a stance. He is safeguarding the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee on April 29th with a vote of 13-11, and is expected to receive full Senate confirmation during the week of May 11th, officially becoming the next Fed chair.
This means that starting from mid-May, the Fed will present a rare pattern: new Chair Warsh making decisions, while former Chair Powell remains on the table as an ordinary director.
Will the new chair curse repeat?
Crypto analyst CRYPTOWZRD reminded us of a historical pattern: every time a new Fed chair takes office, Bitcoin usually retraces for several months.
What happened when Powell was reappointed in 2022?
In May 2022, the Fed began a rate hike cycle, and BTC fell from about 40k to 16k by the end of the year.
And in 2018, when Powell first took office? BTC dropped from 17k to around 3k.
Of course, history doesn’t repeat exactly. The context when Warsh takes over is different—interest rates are already high at 3.5%-3.75%, and the market generally expects rate cuts to begin in the second half of the year. But the pace and timing remain uncertain.
Warsh was confirmed by the Senate Banking Committee with a 13-11 vote, which itself indicates controversy over his policy stance. The market will closely watch his first statement after taking office—whether he continues Powell’s cautious approach or signals a more dovish or hawkish stance.
Willy Woo’s recent assessment of BTC’s trend is: it needs to close above 79k (the average cost basis of recent investors) to confirm a rebound trend. The probability he gives is only 30%.

#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin surged 12.7% in April, but there's a signal worth paying close attention to
Just past April, Bitcoin rose 12.7%, marking its best monthly performance since April 2025. Ethereum increased by 8%, also rising for two consecutive months, reaching its strongest monthly gain since August last year. If you only look at price charts, this is definitely a month to celebrate. But we need to stay calm, because there’s one data point that’s more concerning than the price increase itself.
01 Large gains, but weak buying demand
Cryptocurrency data research firm CryptoQuant recently released a report with a core point: Bitcoin’s April rally was entirely driven by futures demand, while spot demand continued to shrink throughout the rally. So, this market movement was pushed up by leverage, not genuine buying support. Specifically, CryptoQuant tracks the real demand indicator of Bitcoin’s 30-day spot net inflow change, which remained negative throughout April. The "real demand" from users actually buying Bitcoin not only didn’t increase but decreased. Meanwhile, trading demand for futures and perpetual contracts surged significantly.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, put it plainly: "The divergence between rising futures demand and shrinking spot demand indicates that this price increase is driven by leverage, not by market accumulation."
02 Historical pattern: such markets often have poor outcomes
Moreno also pointed out a key historical pattern: from a historical perspective, such markets lack the structural fundamentals to sustain the rally. Once futures positions are heavily liquidated, prices tend to pull back. This is not alarmist talk.
In the 2022 bear market, similar conditions appeared—futures demand surged while spot demand declined, ultimately leading to a prolonged price decline. The current demand pattern resembles that of the start of the 2022 bear market. Back then, the market looked prosperous, prices seemed fine, but the number of genuine buyers was decreasing while speculators increased. The result? Bitcoin fell from $69,000 all the way down to $17,000.
03 Market structure is changing
The report also reveals a deeper issue: the crypto market environment is undergoing a structural shift. Perpetual contracts have become the core arena for trading activity, liquidity, and price discovery. Meanwhile, the spot trading that early exchanges relied on for survival is now playing a diminishing role in industry growth and revenue.
Simply put, today’s crypto market is increasingly resembling a "derivatives market" rather than a "spot market." The price discovery mechanism may have fundamentally changed, and traditional technical and fundamental analysis might no longer be as applicable.
04 Bitcoin bull-bear strength index has fallen from 50 to 40
CryptoQuant’s bull-bear strength index has dropped from 50 in April to 40, indicating that market sentiment is "turning more bearish." Coupled with the previous analysis, the logic is clear: technically, the market looks strong (two months of gains), but fundamentally, it’s weak (real buying demand shrinks). Behind this "false prosperity," there are often larger risks brewing.
05 What’s next in May? It depends on this level
According to analyst forecasts, Bitcoin may face a critical test in May: the 200-day moving average. Currently, the 200-day MA is around $79,400, an important technical threshold. If Bitcoin can break through this level effectively, it could signal the start of a new upward trend; if it gets rejected again, caution is warranted for a potential pullback.
The target price range forecasted by analysts from May 11 to May 20 is between $78,000 and $84,000, depending on whether it can break through the $79,400 key level.
06 How should we act?
In this environment of "rising but lacking conviction," here are some suggestions:
First, don’t be fooled by short-term gains. A rise doesn’t mean fundamentals are improving; learn to see through the true situation behind the data.
Second, pay attention to the relationship between spot and futures demand. If they continue to diverge, be alert.
Third, control leverage and position sizes. In such a market, excessive leverage could force you to liquidate during a pullback.
Fourth, practice good risk management. No matter how optimistic you are about the future, set stop-loss levels to protect your capital.
The crypto market is never short of stories of quick riches, but more often it’s about liquidation tragedies. Surviving in this market is more important than making quick money.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and risky; please make rational decisions and implement personal risk controls.

#Gate广场五月交易分享 #Polymarket每日热点 Polymarket Prediction Markets: Global Collective Convergence of Expectations! From the Federal Reserve to Geopolitics, Markets Are Pricing in Low-Volatility Steady State
Today, the entire Polymarket market exhibits a strong convergence toward risk appetite, with macro-level political, policy, and geopolitical tail risk premiums rapidly unwinding. Extreme climate scenarios have been discredited, and the market collectively prices a "status quo, low-volatility operation" steady state; most events in the market have entered final pricing, with exhausted bargaining space. Only technology mergers and acquisitions, and airline policy events retain mild expectations differences, making them the only directions with current strategic value.
1. Macro Level: Tail Risks Recede Across the Board, Steady State Consensus Fully Formed
Core Signal 1: Expectations of policy and geopolitical tail risks collapsing, market prices policy continuity
The probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell being replaced before May 15 drops to 25% (down 52%); the probability of Mexico’s Sinaloa governor Rocha stepping down before May 31 falls to 13% (down 59%); the chance of Sharjah Sheikh Sultan being arrested is only 2%, almost completely ruled out by the market. Previously, panic over global policy shifts and regional political turmoil has been fully corrected; capital no longer pays risk premiums for short-term uncertainties, instead anchoring on the stability of core global policies and power structures, forming the macro foundation for low-volatility pricing.
Expectations of policy and geopolitical tail risks have entered a consensus final pricing, with bargaining value approaching zero.
Core Signal 2: Natural Climate Risk Premiums Narrow Simultaneously, Extreme Scenarios Fully Discredited
From April 27 to May 3, the probability of more than three earthquakes above magnitude 5.5 globally rising to 95% (up 77%); the probability of global warming between 1.10°C and 1.14°C by April 2026 falling to 12% (down 19%). The market has significantly reduced the weight assigned to extreme natural disasters and climate anomalies, with risk appetite shrinking in tandem, further reinforcing the market’s low-volatility main theme, and the risk premiums for extreme tail scenarios have essentially cleared.
The reversal in natural climate pricing reflects a retreat of overall market risk aversion, with no additional trading space.
2. Sector Level: Technology and Aviation Are the Only Expectation Gaps, Becoming Market Opportunity Pockets
Core Signal 1: Technology M&A Expectations Rise, Industry Logic Drives Positive Pricing
Lovable’s probability of being acquired before 2027 rises to 35% (up 21%), making it one of the few positive upward adjustments in the market. In the context of overall risk contraction, capital remains optimistic only about tech M&A events driven by industry cycle logic, reflecting a shift from risk aversion to growth expectations supported by fundamentals.
Tech M&A is a scarce positive expectation asset in the market, with left-side positioning value.
Core Signal 2: Expectations of Airline Policy Intervention Rise, Regulatory Rescue Logic Incorporated into Pricing
The probability of Spirit Airlines being acquired before May 31 in the US rises to 21% (up 17%), creating another expectation gap window. Capital is reassessing the likelihood of regulatory rescue for the airline industry, with policy intervention scenarios gaining weight, representing one of the few policy opportunities with marginal change under macro steady state.
Airline policy events are a regulatory expectation gap, with potential for bargaining and correction.
3. Three Major Market Misalignments Currently
1. Tech M&A Expectation Mismatch: After macro risks clear, capital returns to industry logic; the tech sector enters an integration window, with leading companies eager to expand externally. However, the market’s pricing of accelerated M&A lags behind, creating a mismatch between industry cycles and market expectations, offering left-side positioning opportunities.
2. Airline Policy Expectation Mismatch: Under a stabilized macro environment, regulatory stability and policy rescue for the airline industry are rational, but the market underprices the probability of policy intervention and lacks consensus, leading to regulatory expectation lag and mismatch.
3. Overall Market Risk Pricing Mismatch: The market has compressed macro and tail risks to the extreme, forming a low-volatility consensus, yet capital remains overly risk-averse, underestimating the value of industry recovery and policy benefits. The risk side is overly rational, and opportunities react sluggishly, with a defensive pricing structure.
4. Final Remarks
The core logic of today’s market is the collective unwinding of tail risk premiums and the unidirectional solidification of steady state consensus. Macro-level policies, geopolitics, and natural risks are priced to finality, with most events entering an undisputed final range, and bargaining space fully exhausted.
In a context dominated by risk-averse sentiment and low volatility as the main pricing mode, capital will not stay in unexpectationless existing assets but will seek incremental opportunities with marginal changes. The only remaining opportunities are in industry dividends from tech M&A and regulatory expectations gaps in airline policies.
When 90% of risks are priced at zero, the remaining 10% of marginal expectations differences become the core sources of returns that can traverse the steady state cycle.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 The Last 48 Hours of Gold: War Clouds + Rate Cut Dreams Shattered, Will the Market Plunge at Opening After the Holiday?
This weekend, global capital markets have been anything but calm, with everyone's eyes tightly fixed on the moment the market opens on Monday. Geopolitical conflicts suddenly escalated, U.S. non-farm payroll data completely shattered rate cut fantasies, oil prices face imminent runaway risks, and a triple negative shock overlays the already fragile global markets, plunging them into unprecedented tension. Market sentiment, pent up for two days, is set to explode at the Monday opening, signaling an impending worldwide financial storm.
1. Countdown to War! 48-Hour Ultimatum, U.S.-Iran Conflict Out of Control
On Saturday, local time, Trump issued a major warning on TRUTHSocial, giving Iran a 48-hour deadline, which will expire Monday evening Eastern Time. His words, “Hell will descend in 48 hours,” instantly triggered the highest-level alert in the Middle East. The ultimatum is extremely harsh: Iran must immediately accept U.S. demands to reopen the global energy choke point—the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already made it clear they refuse, leaving no room for compromise. Trump further threatened that if Iran does not comply, U.S. military will directly bomb Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure. Such actions would constitute war crimes under international law, with unimaginable consequences. More dramatically, Trump previously boasted that “Iran has no air defense,” claiming U.S. military operations would be unobstructed. However, reality struck back hard: U.S. aircraft were successfully shot down by Iran. This incident not only shattered his claims of victory but also raised serious doubts about his leadership, similar to the end of the Afghanistan war, which eroded voter confidence in Biden. Political upheaval will inevitably ripple into financial markets. The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of global oil shipments—truly the lifeline of world energy. If military conflict erupts here, global energy supplies will be cut off directly, geopolitical risk premiums will skyrocket, and risk aversion in markets will reach its peak.
2. Rate Cut Expectations Completely Vanished! Strong Non-Farm Data Dashes Market Fantasies
If geopolitical conflict is a sword hanging overhead, then the U.S. March non-farm payroll data released on Friday is another straw that broke the camel’s back, completely erasing the expectation of rate cuts this year. The data was “exceptionally strong”: U.S. job additions in March far exceeded market expectations, reversing February’s negative employment growth, with unemployment rate falling simultaneously. The U.S. labor market demonstrated remarkable resilience. This means the Federal Reserve has no reason to cut rates; high interest rates will persist longer. The rate cut betting that Wall Street has been betting on for months is now officially bankrupt. Coincidentally, Friday was Good Friday, and major global stock markets were closed, preventing the market from digesting this heavy negative news in real time. Massive sell-off sentiment was forced to accumulate. Without trading days to buffer, all bearish expectations and panic selling will be concentrated and unleashed at Monday’s open, causing violent swings across global equities, bonds, and forex markets.
3. Oil Prices at Risk of Losing Control! Expectations Outpace Reality, Global Inflation Faces New Blow
The most worrying factor now is the risk of runaway international oil prices, even more frightening than the current situation—market “expectation mismanagement.” The escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict plus the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade has ignited panic in the crude oil market. Even if supply has not yet been materially interrupted, markets are already pricing in war risks in advance. Analysts warn that if the U.S. launches an attack, the Strait’s shipping could come to a halt, creating a huge gap in global oil supply. Brent crude could surge, breaking the $100 mark just the beginning; in extreme cases, prices could spike even higher. The out-of-control oil prices are not just an energy market issue—they will quickly transmit to all sectors, pushing up costs for transportation, manufacturing, daily necessities, and all goods. The already high global inflation will rise again, forcing central banks into difficult choices. The global economic recovery will slow further, triggering a terrifying chain reaction.
4. What Will Happen to Global Assets at Monday’s Opening?
With triple pressures bearing down, the global capital markets on Monday are destined for turbulence:
1. Stock Markets: Equities worldwide are likely to face sell-offs, with U.S., European, and Asia-Pacific markets all under downward pressure. Safe-haven funds will accelerate fleeing, with high-valuation sectors hit hardest;
2. Forex: The dollar, with its safe-haven status, is expected to strengthen further, while non-U.S. currencies face pressure, and emerging market currencies will see increased volatility;
3. Bonds: U.S. Treasury yields may continue rising, as rate cut expectations are dashed and risk aversion diverges, leading to increased bond market volatility;
4. Commodities: Safe-haven and energy commodities like oil and gold will become focal points for capital chasing, likely experiencing sharp price surges.
In Conclusion
The 48-hour countdown, with markets opening on Monday, will be a major test for global markets. Geopolitical uncertainties, monetary policy shifts, and commodity volatility are intertwined, requiring every investor to be well-prepared. Will this storm result in short-term turbulence or mark a turning point in long-term trends? The answers will gradually unfold after the market opens on Monday.
Risk Warning: This article is based solely on current market information and event analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Markets carry risks; invest cautiously. In extreme conditions, control your positions and respond rationally.

#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 This article teaches you how to use the three lines of Bollinger Bands (upper band, middle band, lower band) to judge market trends and find buy and sell opportunities. It also explains how to avoid pitfalls and manage risks. The content can be divided into these sections:
First, understand the “basic usage” of Bollinger Bands: It was invented by John Bollinger in 1983. The core is three lines — the middle band is the 20-day moving average, the upper band is the middle band plus 2 times the standard deviation, and the lower band is the middle band minus 2 times the standard deviation.
The channel formed by these three lines indicates the magnitude of price fluctuations: the wider the channel, the more intense the price swings; the narrower the channel, the more likely a quick trend reversal (78% of the time, narrow channels precede big moves). The middle band acts as a “trend boundary line”: if the price deviates too far from the middle band, it’s likely to revert back.
How to interpret “buy and sell signals”:
Trend signals: When the price breaks through the middle band with increased volume (more than the 20-day average volume), and three consecutive candles stay above the middle band, it’s a reliable bullish signal; breaking below the middle band indicates a bearish trend.
Reversal signals: When the upper and lower bands are very close (contracted by more than 20%), like “squeezed” together, it suggests an upcoming breakout — either a volume-driven move above the upper band or below the lower band. But don’t rush to buy on the first breakout; 30% of these may be false signals. Wait for the close confirmation for more reliability.
Overbought and oversold signals: When the price moves above the upper band, it indicates “overbought” conditions, and you might consider selling some; when it drops below the lower band, it indicates “oversold,” and you might consider buying a little more. Also, if the price stays outside the bands for more than 4 candles, there’s a 68% chance it will revert toward the middle band, suitable for short-term profit-taking.
How to use different trading timeframes:
Short-term (intraday trading): Watch 15-minute and 1-hour charts, use the 4-hour chart for the overall trend, set a 2% stop-loss and 3% take-profit, and avoid greed.
Mid-term (swing trading): Use 4-hour and daily charts, refer to the weekly middle band to decide whether to buy or sell. If the upper and lower bands are expanding at more than 45°, it indicates a strong trend, allowing you to hold longer.
Long-term: Use weekly and monthly charts. When all three lines are trending upward, consider a firm buy-and-hold strategy for at least 3 months. If the channel width on the monthly chart exceeds the maximum of the past three years, it could signal a market top or bottom, suitable for phased position building.
Don’t rely solely on Bollinger Bands; combine with other indicators: Relying on Bollinger Bands alone can lead to pitfalls. Use RSI, MACD, and volume for confirmation. For example, if the price hits a new high but RSI doesn’t, it’s a “bearish divergence” and likely to fall. If MACD shows a bullish crossover (buy signal) while the price breaks above the middle band, the upward move is more reliable.
Additionally, volume during breakouts should be at least twice the 30-day average; otherwise, it might be a false breakout.
Risk management is paramount:
Stop-loss and take-profit: After buying, if the price falls below the middle band, sell quickly — don’t hold through the loss. After selling, if the price breaks above the middle band, cut losses and exit. You can also sell in stages, e.g., sell 30% when the price hits the opposite band, then sell another 40% on a pullback to the middle band.
Leverage usage: When the price breaks the bands, reduce leverage; when the channel is narrow, you can slightly increase it. The higher the leverage, the stricter the stop-loss should be. For example, with 5x leverage, accept a maximum loss of 1%; with 20x leverage, only 0.25%. Never risk more than 5% of your total capital on a single trade.
Avoid false breakouts: For short-term signals (like 15-minute charts), always check the longer-term trend (like 4-hour charts). If the price hits a new high but the channel doesn’t widen or volume doesn’t increase, it might be a false breakout — don’t follow blindly.
How to handle special situations:
Extreme market conditions (e.g., rapid price surges or crashes): Increase the channel multiplier from 2x to 3x to prevent frequent false signals. If the channel suddenly widens more than 3x within 24 hours, be alert for black swan events and reduce leverage immediately.
Range-bound or choppy markets: Adjust the middle band period to 10 days for more sensitivity. If the price fluctuates less than 20% of the channel width and volume is low, consider staying out of the market and avoid unnecessary trades.
Black swan warnings: If major coins and Bitcoin’s channels expand abnormally at the same time with high correlation, it could indicate systemic risk. Prepare hedging strategies in advance.

How do non-farm payroll data influence cryptocurrency assets through Federal Reserve policies?
Bitcoin is essentially a high-risk, zero-yield alternative asset, with its price movements highly dependent on the global liquidity environment. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key driver of global liquidity conditions, and non-farm payroll data is one of the core indicators used by the Fed to formulate policy. Its transmission logic is very clear.
1. Surprising non-farm payrolls directly reverse Fed rate cut expectations
The core goal of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is full employment + price stability. When the labor market is strong and the economy is resilient, the Fed has no motivation to cut interest rates and may even delay easing measures.
Before the data release, the market widely bet that the probability of a rate cut in June exceeded 65%, believing that the U.S. economy was gradually slowing, inflation was continuing to decline, and the Fed might start a rate-cut cycle. After the 178k non-farm payrolls figure was announced, CME FedWatch Tool showed the probability of a rate cut in June plummeted to 2%. The market completely revised its easing expectations, re-pricing a policy path of "maintaining higher rates for longer." The April FOMC meeting is now highly likely to keep rates unchanged, significantly delaying the rate cut cycle.
For Bitcoin, a high-interest-rate environment means higher yields on risk-free assets like U.S. Treasuries and cash dollars. Funds will flow out of risk assets such as cryptocurrencies and growth stocks into risk-free assets, directly draining liquidity from the crypto market, which naturally puts downward pressure on prices.
2. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields rise together, suppressing dollar-denominated assets
Bitcoin is priced in USD, and the strength of the dollar index directly affects its valuation. Strong non-farm payroll data boosts dollar confidence, attracting global capital back to the U.S., leading to a stronger dollar index. Assets priced in USD, such as Bitcoin and gold, are passively devalued accordingly.
Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is regarded as the global asset pricing anchor. Rising yields mean a significant increase in opportunity costs for capital. Bitcoin itself does not generate interest, so in the context of rising Treasury yields, its attractiveness diminishes sharply. Institutional funds reduce crypto holdings and increase U.S. Treasury positions, further intensifying Bitcoin's selling pressure.
3. Leverage liquidations amplify market volatility
Previously, Bitcoin hovered above $70k for several days, accumulating a large number of high-leverage long positions. Investors generally held expectations of Fed rate cuts, with bullish sentiment prevailing.
However, the unexpectedly negative non-farm payroll data became the last straw for longs, triggering a wave of forced liquidations of long positions in the short term. This "longs killing longs" cascade led to rapid price declines, breaking key support levels.
Current core characteristics of the crypto market: macro-driven, short-term pressure
Looking at the current market, the crypto scene after the non-farm payroll data shows clear macro dominance. Short-term trends are completely detached from on-chain data, halving narratives, and other internal factors, focusing instead on Fed policy expectations. There are three main features:
First, short-term market movements are dominated by Fed expectations, with technical analysis temporarily invalidated.
Previously, Bitcoin oscillated around $70k with strong technical support. But after the non-farm payroll data, support levels were quickly broken. Market attention shifted away from on-chain holdings and fund flows to macro indicators like the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and rate cut probabilities. These macro data points have become the sole short-term market indicators.
Second, institutional funds are temporarily fleeing to safety, but long-term allocation logic remains unchanged.
After the data release, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day net outflow of over $180 million, marking the largest outflow in nearly three weeks, indicating increased short-term risk aversion among institutions. However, in the long run, with Bitcoin halving approaching and deflationary supply expectations clear, global institutional demand for crypto assets remains. This outflow is a short-term rebalancing, not a long-term exit.
Third, market sentiment shifts rapidly, with panic and caution coexisting.
Post-data, crypto market fear and greed indices quickly dropped from greed into neutral or fear zones. Investors reduce leverage and trim positions, becoming more cautious. Short-term trading activity declines, and the market enters a consolidation phase, awaiting the next key macro data to guide direction.
Future trend outlook: short-term consolidation, long-term fundamentals unchanged
Considering the impact of non-farm payroll data, Fed policy direction, and the crypto market cycle, the following outlook is made for Bitcoin and crypto assets:
1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Range-bound between $66k and $70k, difficult to break key support
In the near term, the negative impact of the non-farm payroll data will persist. Fed rate cut expectations will cool down, and the dollar and Treasury yields will stay high. Bitcoin will likely struggle to quickly regain above $70k, mostly oscillating within $66,000–$70k.
$66,000 is the recent low and a dense trading zone, providing strong support. Absent major negative surprises, breaking below this level is unlikely. Conversely, $70,000 will serve as a strong resistance, with rebounds likely to face rejection. Investors should control positions carefully, avoiding reckless buying or chasing highs.
2. Medium-term (1-3 months): Watch inflation data and await policy signals
After the non-farm payrolls, focus shifts to the March CPI inflation data scheduled for April 10, which will be another key basis for Fed policy decisions.
If inflation continues to decline, even with strong employment, the Fed may signal a dovish stance, and rate cut expectations could slightly rebound. Bitcoin could then resume a sideways upward trend.
If inflation rebounds along with strong employment, the Fed will likely maintain high rates, and crypto markets will remain under pressure, prolonging consolidation.
3. Long-term (over 6 months): Halving + institutional demand support
In the long run, the recent drop triggered by non-farm payrolls is just short-term volatility and will not change the core logic of the crypto market.
On one hand, Bitcoin halving is approaching, and historical data shows that supply-side deflation around halving often drives bull markets.
On the other hand, global crypto regulation is accelerating, U.S. spot ETF inflows continue, and institutional demand is steadily rising. Long-term, Bitcoin still has upward potential.

#欧美关税风波冲击市场 The Trump administration's tariff threats and policy shifts have become one of the core macro factors driving recent sharp fluctuations in global risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
Essentially, the market is reacting to the transmission chain of “trade protectionism escalation—deterioration of the global economic outlook—decline in risk appetite.” Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, exhibit a strong correlation with traditional tech stocks (represented by the Nasdaq index) and safe-haven assets (represented by gold), revealing their current positioning in the eyes of macro traders: they are high-beta risk assets rather than the safe-haven assets many once believed.
When Trump issues new tariff threats (such as imposing high tariffs on the EU and Japan) or signs “reciprocal tariff” executive orders, the market immediately prices in the following expectations:
1. **Global trade contraction**: Tariff barriers will hinder global trade and drag down economic growth.
2. **Resurgence of inflation pressures**: Rising costs of imported goods may push inflation higher again, complicating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. The rate-cut cycle might be delayed or shortened, and the expectation of maintaining higher interest rates for longer (“Higher for Longer”) will intensify. The tightening of liquidity is directly bearish for risk assets.
3. **Safe-haven sentiment heats up**: Investors, worried about economic uncertainty, will reduce exposure to stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets, instead flocking to safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds.
This is the fundamental reason why we see the pattern “tariff threats → US stocks fall, Nasdaq futures fall → Bitcoin falls along with them → gold rises” repeatedly playing out. The cryptocurrency market, especially with its large leverage and quantitative trading programs, quickly captures and amplifies these traditional market sentiment swings, leading to “flash crashes.”
However, this relationship is not unidirectional or linear. When tariff threats are “within expectations” or policies are “reversed,” market reactions can be quite different.
* **“Good news already priced in” rebound**: If tariff policies are already anticipated and fully priced in (such as the steel and aluminum tariffs on February 11), the market may rebound when the policies are actually implemented, as uncertainty is resolved.
* **Policy “sudden U-turn”**: The most extreme example was Trump’s sudden suspension of tariffs on April 9 last year, which was interpreted by the market as a major signal of risk appetite shift, leading to a revenge rally in global risk assets. Due to the 24/7 trading nature of cryptocurrencies, their response was even more rapid than traditional equities.
These series of events demonstrate that the cryptocurrency market has become deeply integrated into the global macro-financial system. Its price discovery is no longer solely driven by on-chain activity or industry narratives but is largely influenced by traditional macroeconomic events, geopolitical developments, and fiscal and monetary policy expectations. Traders now need to monitor social media accounts of Trump and tariff policy developments as closely as they follow Federal Reserve meetings.
For future judgments, the key is to distinguish between “anticipated” and “unexpected” events. Ongoing trade frictions and moderate tariff escalations may be gradually absorbed by the market and establish new benchmarks. However, any protectionist policies that surpass current market expectations and are more aggressive could trigger the next cross-market safe-haven wave. In such an environment, high volatility in cryptocurrencies will become the norm.

#周末行情分析 Weekend market continues to fluctuate.
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate within the range today. Currently, on the daily chart, a short-term bottoming process has begun, and it is expected to complete the adjustment soon and rebound upward. The weekly chart shows a bullish candlestick pattern, indicating a clear upward trend. The overall major trend signals a bullish outlook. Next week’s market is still quite optimistic. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, focus on 94800; holding above this level could lead to testing 95500-96300-97100 levels. If broken downward, pay attention to support levels at 94200-93500-92800 for potential rebounds.
ETH: Ethereum’s intraday trading continues to fluctuate within the range. From the overall trend, there is still a need for short-term adjustment. The main trend remains bullish. Currently, on the 4-hour chart, focus on 3300; holding above this level could lead to testing 3350-3375-3425 levels. If broken downward, watch for support at 3275-3230-3180 for potential rebounds.
Summary: The weekend market has been volatile for two days. The overall trend has not weakened, and next week is still expected to mainly move upward, so there are no major issues.

#我的2026第一条帖 The new Federal Reserve chair is locked in! Powell takes office = Crypto bull market accelerator, dual on-chain + news-side ironclad evidence!
A single statement from Trump directly nailed down the Fed chair candidate, with Kevin Woor’s nomination probability soaring to 60%, leading the pack. This macro shift is not a positive for the crypto market but a super strong confidence booster — a new round of main upward wave is already on the horizon!
1. Core macro logic:
Woor = Crypto-friendly “Inflation Terminator”
Woor’s policy stance is practically tailor-made for the crypto market: he straightforwardly states “Inflation is the Fed’s choice,” with the core strategy being to control inflation through shrinking the balance sheet (QT), paving the way to lower nominal interest rates! This aligns perfectly with Trump’s desire to reduce borrowing costs, meaning future dollar liquidity will shift from “tight balance” to “moderate easing,” and risk assets have always been the biggest beneficiaries of liquidity.
More importantly, he opposes normalized QE and advocates for the Fed to return to its core mission. This “practical monetarism” can thoroughly repair market trust cracks in the dollar and open valuation space for crypto assets (especially Bitcoin’s “digital gold” attribute). Compared to Powell’s indecisiveness, Woor’s clear path will make institutional funds more willing to increase positions!
2. News resonance:
Global capital rushes into crypto track as regulation accelerates clarity: Although the US “Digital Asset Clarification Act” is temporarily delayed, bipartisan negotiations remain on track, and it’s inevitable that crypto assets will emerge from the gray area;
Plus Trump’s pardon of CZ and “green light” for the crypto industry, policy risks are directly cleared.
Institutions are aggressively bottom-fishing: Harvard funds treat Bitcoin ETF as their top holding, with holdings skyrocketing by 257%;
MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings, and Bitcoin ETF recently saw net capital inflows, with institutions voting with real money.
Overseas funds entering: South Korea allows companies to buy crypto with 5% of their own capital, 3,500 companies are waiting with massive funds, and this incremental capital conservatively amounts to trillions!
3. On-chain ironclad evidence: concentrated chips + liquidity buildup
Bitcoin’s non-liquid supply hits record highs, indicating large holders and institutions are locking in and holding, with chip concentration comparable to the eve of a bull market; stablecoin market cap has reached 266.5 billion, 99% anchored to the dollar and handling 94% of crypto trading volume. With Woor’s policies taking effect, stablecoin market cap is expected to surge toward one trillion, directly injecting continuous liquidity into the market;
CME institutional long positions steadily grow, with large liquidation pressure concentrated around the 110,000 level. Once broken, it will trigger over 120 million short liquidations, becoming a market booster!
Conclusion: Bullish stance, clear target!
Four major logical resonances — macro (liquidity easing) + policy (regulatory friendliness) + on-chain (chip concentration) + institutions (continuous accumulation) — crypto market has entered a “buying exceeds selling” structural bull market.
Bitcoin aims for $120,000 in the short term, Ethereum breaking $4,000 is just a matter of time, and mainstream altcoins will follow closely with a rebound!

#我的2026第一条帖 Bull Market "Mid-Season Break"? Crypto Market Cools Off and Consolidates, Brewing the Next Act
Since last night until now, the overall cryptocurrency market remains relatively stable, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both entering a retracement phase. Bitcoin continued its intraday downward trend from yesterday, dropping to around 95,100 early this morning, giving back some of its previous gains. It is now fluctuating around 95,600; Ethereum is relatively steadier but also unable to withstand pressure, falling to around 3,273 early this morning, wiping out the rebound space before the US market opened. It’s clear that the short-term rebound momentum is already significantly lacking.
Last night, initial jobless claims did not meet expectations, indicating that the employment market has stabilized. Plus, several Federal Reserve officials continued to sound hawkish, openly stating a pause in rate cuts, which directly dampened risk assets. Currently, most market participants believe there is a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January. The previously期待ed liquidity easing is now largely out of sight.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin had been rising for several days, but yesterday finally closed with a bearish candle. The four-hour MACD has formed a death cross and started increasing volume below the zero line. The RSI has also turned downward from the overbought zone, indicating that a short-term correction is highly likely. Fortunately, the price is currently stuck near the four-hour midline, which may hold for a while, and the weak volume on the hourly chart has eased somewhat.
Ethereum’s daily chart also closed with a bearish candle, and the four-hour MACD is weakening as well. The momentum of the rebound at high levels is diminishing day by day. Key resistance and support levels include two points above Bitcoin: one is the hourly midline at 96,300, and the other is the high point of last night’s rebound at 97,000; short-term support below is the four-hour midline at 94,800. If this level cannot hold, it’s likely to continue downward toward the previous range of 94,000-93,000.
For Ethereum, resistance is concentrated between 3,370 and 3,400. The key support is at the 3,270 midline; if this level is broken, the correction will likely intensify, possibly falling to the 3,200-3,150 range.
Overall, today’s market mainly shows a pressure-driven correction trend. Tonight’s speeches by several Federal Reserve officials are crucial, as they will directly influence short-term market sentiment. Everyone should pay close attention. The core focus remains on the rebound strength and the performance of key support and resistance levels. If the main supports cannot hold, the crypto market may return to the previous consolidation range. It’s advisable to stay cautious in trading, avoid rushing into positions, and wait for clearer signals before taking action for better safety.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Pakistan Reaches Stablecoin Payment Agreement with Cryptocurrency Company Linked to Trump
Reportedly, Pakistan has signed an agreement with the cryptocurrency firm World Liberty Financial, which is associated with the family of former U.S. President Donald Trump, to explore cross-border payments using its USD-pegged stablecoin.
According to Reuters on Wednesday, citing an informed source, the agreement involves a little-known company called SC Financial Technologies, affiliated with World Liberty Financial, marking the first public collaboration between a Trump-associated cryptocurrency enterprise and a sovereign nation.
Reuters reports that under the agreement, World Liberty Financial will collaborate with the State Bank of Pakistan to integrate its $1 stablecoin into a regulated digital payment framework. The token will work in tandem with Pakistan’s emerging digital currency infrastructure and may support cross-border transactions such as remittances.
Specific terms of the agreement have not been disclosed, and details about SC Financial Technologies remain limited.
It is reported that Pakistan is expected to officially announce the agreement later on Wednesday during World Liberty CEO Zack Witkoff’s visit to Islamabad.
World Liberty has gained attention for its role in major transactions. In May last year, Abu Dhabi-based state investment firm MGX used World Liberty’s stablecoin to facilitate its $200 million equity acquisition of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, bn.
Earlier this week, World Liberty also launched World Liberty Markets, a new on-chain lending platform built on its $1 stablecoin and WLFI governance token. The platform allows users to post cryptocurrencies such as Ether as collateral.
Pakistan has been steadily advancing its digital financial agenda, aiming to become a global cryptocurrency hub. The country has taken significant steps to regulate its crypto ecosystem, including establishing the Pakistan Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority, allowing crypto exchanges bn and HTX to operate within the country, building Bitcoin reserves, and exploring real-world asset tokenization to attract foreign investment and increase liquidity.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 The early morning market sees strong bullish forces launching a fierce assault, with the main index surging rapidly. The price high point precisely touches the key resistance level of the MA5 moving average on the monthly chart. Meanwhile, on the daily chart, the three major technical indicators—KDJ, MACD, and Bollinger Bands (BOLL)—show clear resonance signals of upward movement. In the main chart's moving average (MA) system, all the MAs within a three-day cycle are also simultaneously showing different degrees of upward turning. Bitcoin (BTC) has perfectly fulfilled the technical expectation of a secondary upward attack on the daily chart level, successfully breaking through the previous box consolidation structure’s top resistance at $94,500. The current price has stabilized near the $95,000 mark. According to the principle of top-bottom reversal in technical analysis, the previous box structure’s top resistance has now transformed into a key support zone. In the short term, the price faces resistance in the range of $95,500-$96,500. If the bulls can continue to exert effort and break through this resistance zone, then the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching the $100,000 psychological level is highly feasible.
From the 4-hour chart perspective, after experiencing a phase of low-level oscillation and bottoming out, the price broke through the Bollinger Bands' upper band with a continuous volume increase of bullish candles. Subsequently, with a long upper shadow retracement, it entered a technical correction zone. During this period, the Bollinger Bands exhibited a typical trumpet expansion pattern. The short-cycle MA system maintained a steep upward slope simultaneously. The MACD indicator's two lines remained in a golden cross and diverging upward, but the energy histogram showed a significant contraction. The KDJ indicator, in the overbought zone (values approaching 100), encountered resistance and turned downward. The VR volume-price indicator hovered around the key level of 350, showing sideways consolidation, indicating a weakening in overall volume and price coordination.
Tracing back the evolution of this round of market, it completed a bottom formation through repeated testing of the support level over four trading days, then launched a strong attack wave breaking previous highs. Although the overall technical outlook remains bullish, the resistance at the key upper zone cannot be ignored. If this resistance zone cannot be effectively broken and stabilized, the continuation of this upward trend will be significantly compromised, and the market is likely to switch to a wide-range consolidation pattern.
Ethereum (ETH), on the daily chart, has a strong bullish candlestick that penetrates the previous high resistance level. The overall technical logic resonates with Bitcoin. The short-term core support is anchored at the $3,200 level, which will be a critical dividing line in the bulls and bears contest. If the price can stabilize and rebound relying on this support during a pullback, the market is likely to launch another attack on the key resistance zone above. Conversely, if this support is effectively broken, the recent strong daily rally may be a false signal created by the main players to induce buying, and the market will revert to the previous range-bound consolidation pattern. Currently, the price has reached near the upper boundary of the box structure at around $3,320, without forming an effective breakout. The short-term support zone can be moved up to $3,250-$3,280, with the resistance precisely at $3,320. If subsequent bullish volume continues to expand and a breakout occurs, the upward space can directly target the $3,400 level.
The 4-hour chart shows distinct divergence features. The Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, but the price has shown signs of retracing toward the middle band. The three lines of the KDJ indicator, after entering the serious overbought zone, have turned downward and diverged. Short-term correction pressure is continuously building. The MACD energy histogram has significantly shrunk compared to the previous trading cycle, indicating a marginal decline in bullish momentum. The RSI indicator, in the short term, has also turned downward in the overbought zone, with initial signs of bearish divergence. Overall, although the bullish trend at this level has not been fundamentally reversed.

#Gate广场官号粉丝破三万
30,000 fans! That's amazing 🎉🎉🎉🎉🧨🧨🧨
Gate Square is getting more and more lively, and it's all thanks to everyone's love and support. Let's send some blessings:
Hope Gate Square gets better and better, bringing practical, interesting, and reliable content to more crypto friends;
May all fans be accompanied by good luck, assets soar, less anxiety, and more gains 😎😎😎
In the future, I hope our big family will grow stronger, not just in numbers but also in warmth and atmosphere. Let newcomers feel a sense of belonging, veterans resonate, and everyone have fun and learn here. 😊
Wishing you and me the next small goal, to achieve a lucky moment in the crypto world that belongs to us!
By the way, do you have any expectations or suggestions for the square? Maybe they'll come true very soon.

#我的2026第一条帖 Today, Bitcoin prices are gently rising. As of press time, the quote is $91,002.9, up $384.7, a 0.42% increase. Prices have fluctuated narrowly within the range of $90,818.4 to $91,184.2, and market trading sentiment remains relatively stable. Bitcoin's recent price trend shows significant cyclical divergence. In the short term, it has slightly increased by 0.42% intraday, but over the past week, the price has decreased by 3.03%, indicating market oscillation and adjustment after reaching high levels.
From a longer-term perspective, Bitcoin has performed weakly over the past three and six months, declining by 20.84% and 22.48% respectively, reflecting a deep adjustment and consolidation phase after previous substantial gains. However, in terms of annual performance, the decline has narrowed to 3.73%, and since the beginning of the year, it has increased by 3.96%, indicating limited retracement for long-term holders and positive returns within the year. The five-year increase of up to 167.11% fully demonstrates its long-term appreciation potential as a high-risk, high-volatility asset.
Currently, Bitcoin's market capitalization is approximately $1.82 trillion, with a 24-hour trading volume of $17.4 billion. The price is currently positioned slightly above the midpoint of the 52-week range ($49,486.9 - $126,186), still far from its historical high. The market continues to consolidate near the $90,000 mark, attempting to find a new directional breakout.

#Gate广场创作者新春激励 “I’m coming, damn it” causes chaos—who’s next to die?
On January 8, 2026, Chinese retail investors were once again collectively harvested—just yesterday, bn launched its first Chinese meme coin—“bn Life.” It peaked immediately upon launch, then plummeted 80%, with tens of thousands of accounts wiped out overnight.
And today, even more surreal things happened: bn launched another Chinese token—“I’m Coming, Damn It.” Yes, you read that right. “I’m Coming, Damn It”—these five words are now a cryptocurrency worth millions of dollars in market cap.---
⚡️ Hellish level of mockery: This is the current state of the crypto world
1. “bn Life”: from $0.4 crashing to $0.08, a drop of over 80%, perfectly illustrating “launching at the peak, dead by the next day”
2. “I’m Coming, Damn It”: the name is all about traffic, consensus is a joke—the crypto world has become so crazy that “as long as you dare to name it, you dare to issue it.” This is not investment; it’s performance art.---
🔥 Who’s laughing? Who’s crying?
· Exchanges: collecting fees until they’re numb, launching = printing money
· Project teams: issuing tokens at zero cost, cashing out and leaving
· Big investors: pre-positioned, fleeing before the crash
· Retail investors: rushing in thinking they can get rich, only to wake up and find they’re just fuel
Harsh truth: what you bought isn’t a coin, it’s a “harvesting license.”
-The ultimate truth about MEME coins
When the market lacks real value, meme coins become a form of legal gambling.
The rules are simple:
· Early insiders: profit
· Latecomers: die
· Exchanges: always win, and you’re probably not among the early ones.
---⚠️ If you see this article: · “I’m Coming, Damn It” has already surged— that’s a trap
· “I’m Coming, Damn It” is crashing— that’s a harvest
· You want to “buy the dip”— that’s a death wish
Remember: when a meme coin becomes so popular that you’re aware of it, its only purpose is to take your money.---📈
Market truth: Don’t be blinded by memes; the overall market is still volatile, but the altcoin season is brewing. The real opportunities are never in these attention-grabbing memes. Stick to value coins and stay away from gambling tokens—this is the only rule to survive in 2026.