Feifan123

The next cycle of the crypto market will very likely be dominated by value investing.

The SEC released an official interpretive document on March 17, 2026, and added a batch of tokens to its digital commodities examples list. Digital commodities have basically evaded securities law regulation. Here's the complete list:
The first tier consists of 16 tokens that are consistently classified as digital commodities:
$BTC (Bitcoin）、 $ETH (Ethereum）、 $XRP (Ripple）、 $SOL (Solana）、
$ADA (Cardano）、 $DOGE (Dogecoin）、 $SHIB (Shiba Inu）、 $LINK (Chainlink）、
$AVAX (Avalanche）、 $APT ( Aptos）、 $HBAR ( Hedera ）、 $LTC (Litecoin）、
$DOT (Polkadot）、 $XLM (Stellar）、 $XTZ (Tezos）、 $BCH (Bitcoi

Strictly following the four-year cycle dogmatically, 2026 would be like 2022, destined to be the most difficult year to endure.

Here's some data that would make ETH holders anxious.
Solana's 24-hour trading volume is $2.179 billion.
It almost crushes Ethereum L1's trading volume of $948 million.
Even combining Base, Arbitrum, OP—the three mainstream L2s—with L1, the 24-hour trading volume only reaches $1.750 billion.
Beyond trading volume, Solana simultaneously has 1.93 million active addresses.
Besides the two ecosystems, BSC's 24-hour trading volume can also reach $944 million, but with nearly 2.5 million active addresses, it's a true retail chain.
ETH can already be seen as a store-of-value chain.

When will Bitcoin start to drain gold's blood?
That's when the real bull market will truly arrive.

Since the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin has outperformed almost all major traditional assets.

After a year of altcoin bear market, many market consensus views have been overturned.
1. No one has mentioned Bitcoin blood-sucking altcoins for a long time. People have become aware of high FDV and token unlocks.
2. There doesn't appear to be a relationship where Bitcoin rises first, then ETH, then altcoins take their turn.
3. Traditional institutional capital is more inclined toward Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies.
4. Setting aside top projects, the value of VC endorsements has significantly declined.
5. Crypto narratives haven't disappeared, but pure narrative alone can no longer drive

The ongoing sideways market trend is about to begin again.

That so-called season hasn't been mentioned by anyone in a long time.

I used to browse blockchain media and see all kinds of project updates and Bitcoin whale information. Now, when I scroll, I mostly see macro and AI content, and crypto-native news is becoming increasingly rare.

There's been quite noticeable activity on the BTC options side.
Even though short-term panic hedging hasn't completely faded right now, some funds are starting to position in bullish call options.
Starting from late March and into April, there's been significant buying of 75,000 call options, and what's more interesting is that part of these funds chose to sell put options below 60,000 to finance the purchase of call options.
Additionally, for BTC options expiring in March, bullish calls are around $660 million while put options are roughly $240 million, with a ratio close to 3:1.
Capital flow

It seems that Bitcoin hasn't experienced a separate market trend for a long time.

Remember, March 12, 2020, was the result of the crude oil futures crash.

When you're young, make friends with those older than you.
When you're old, make friends with those younger than you.

Once faced with a tough situation, the drawbacks of being accustomed to quick profits start to show, such as trading contracts in a meme-like manner.

The market is still in garbage time,
it rises and falls in the same way.

Bitcoin finally demonstrated its safe-haven properties when national fiat currencies failed.