InTheEnd,Can'tItBe

The 4-hour and daily moving averages are both in a bearish alignment (MA7 < MA30 < MA120), indicating that the medium-term downtrend structure from BTC's peak still holds. It has declined about 28% over 90 days, which confirms the trend is downward. The daily RSI is only at 45, not yet oversold, and there are no clear signs of a rebound.

Ethereum is in a period of intensive technological upgrades—EIP-7702 addresses the core challenge of account abstraction. Lido and Chainlink have jointly launched one-click cross-chain staking. The Ethereum Foundation has recently staked over $140 million worth of ETH, expressing long-term optimism. DEX monthly trading volume remains at the $40.2 billion level, and the ecosystem infrastructure is still relatively stable.

Since the beginning of March, BTC has been trading within a range of $65,000 to $72,000, currently quoted at approximately $67,351, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.7%. On a medium-term perspective, the past 30 days have seen a decline of nearly 7.3%, and over 90 days, the drop is about 25.7%, indicating a clear correction from the high levels.
The daily and 4-hour moving averages are both in a bearish alignment—MA7

Bitmine's Executive Chairman is none other than Tom Lee—a well-known bullish analyst on Wall Street. His endorsement turns this from just a mining company hoarding coins into a signal to the traditional capital markets: "ETH is an asset that can be allocated by institutions just like BTC."
This has some significance for the narrative upgrade of ETH.

Fidelity, Strategy, and other leading institutions continue to steadily build positions; yesterday, spot ETF saw a net inflow of $117.5 million, and Strategy's preferred shares raised enough buying power for over 250 BTC within the first 25 minutes of trading. New Hampshire even issued $100 million in Bitcoin-backed bonds, signaling quite clear policy-level support.

Currently, BTC is around $67,987. The 4-hour CCI is in the overbought zone, the 15-minute MACD shows bearish divergence, and a double top pattern appears on the daily chart—short-term technical pressure exists. The slight outflow from ETFs is the icing on the cake, but there are also supports: incremental narratives like Coinbase's and Fannie Mae's Bitcoin-backed mortgage collaborations are fermenting, and the Fear Greed Index is only at 11, indicating the market is not panicking.

The largest staking operation in Ethereum Foundation history: The Ethereum Foundation recently deposited approximately 22,500 ETH (equivalent to about $46.2 million) into the Beacon staking contract in a single transaction, marking the largest single staking amount ever by the Foundation. This move is interpreted by the market as an official expression of confidence in ETH's value—staking their own tokens and not selling.

Geopolitical conflicts are a net negative for cryptocurrencies in the short term. In the medium term, it depends on whether the narrative of "safe-haven assets" can be switched, but there are no clear signals of this in BTC's current price action. Currently, BTC is still following macro risk sentiment fluctuations rather than moving independently. If the conflict escalates further and inflation expectations rise, the probability of continued short-term pressure increases. It is recommended to manage position risk accordingly.

Current price: 66,000 USDT, 24-hour decline: -4.29%, 7-day: -4.2%, 90 days have already fallen nearly 25%. The 4-hour and daily moving averages are both in a bearish alignment (MA7 < MA30 < MA120), and the daily chart has just completed a death cross, indicating a less favorable trend. The most prominent volume-price feature currently is the increased selling volume—trading volume has significantly expanded while the price is declining, suggesting that the selling pressure is not a powerless decline but involves substantial liquidation or stop-loss activity.

On March 24th, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani released a report setting the target price for BTC at $150,000 by the end of 2026, and predicting that the peak of this bull market cycle will reach $200,000 in 2027. Bernstein's report is more of a mid- to long-term signal rather than a short-term catalyst—it will reinforce the belief among institutions and long-term investors that the "bottom is in," helping to reduce panic selling. However, expecting this report to immediately drive a significant price surge is unrealistic.

The current 70,000–72,000 range is a key battleground zone in the near term. Although the daily chart supports a bullish outlook, extreme market panic and whale distribution behavior indicate that breaking above this level will require stronger catalysts. Traders holding positions should watch the support around 69,000–70,000; if it breaks, the short-term structure will need to be reassessed.

Gold's own price fluctuations won't directly transmit to Bitcoin. The real transmission mechanism comes from the underlying macroeconomic variables—liquidity, the US dollar, and risk-off sentiment. If this round of gold pullback is just normal technical correction in the market, the impact on BTC would be relatively limited; if it signals tightening liquidity behind the scenes, BTC would face real pressure.
Currently, BTC has certain support around $70,000. In the short term, we still need to monitor Fed policy direction and geopolitical developments.

Price correlation effects have now formed. According to on-chain data analysis, the correlation between BTC and ETH price fluctuations and ETF capital flows has significantly strengthened. Market correction periods coincide precisely with ETF outflow periods, while rebounds typically accompany the appearance of ETF net inflows—this kind of "linkage effect" was not present before.

US-Iran tensions continue to dominate market sentiment. Trump threatened to strike Iranian energy facilities last week, triggering a market sell-off; he subsequently announced a delay in the strike plan and mentioned that both sides had conducted "productive dialogue," prompting BTC to rebound above $71,000. Currently, the Middle East situation remains a core macroeconomic variable affecting the cryptocurrency market.

Fear Index 10 historically appears near phase bottom areas, but does not necessarily mean an immediate reversal. The current market presents a combined pattern of "extreme panic sentiment + whales laying out counter-trend + negative funding rates," which has historically often been a mid-term positioning window, but the effectiveness of BTC $68,000 support still needs to be monitored in the short term. For trading, it is recommended to control position size and avoid chasing shorts.

BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) launched on March 12 and surpassed $254 million in assets under management within one week, including over $100 million in seed funding with approximately $146 million in subsequent inflows. The fund will stake 70%–95% of its holdings and distribute 82% of staking rewards to investors monthly, with a management fee of 0.25% (reduced to 0.12% for the first $2.5 billion in assets under management in the first year). This represents an important signal of continued institutional capital inflows into Ethereum.

Short-term sentiment is weak with price pullbacks compounded by extreme fear index readings, leaving the market in risk-off mode. However, based on on-chain data and institutional behavior, the long-term structure remains intact—this is primarily emotional volatility driven by macroeconomic disruptions (geopolitical conflicts, inflation data). Historically, these extreme panic zones have often served as observation windows for long-term capital positioning, though near-term volatility risks still warrant attention.

75,000 is a significant technical threshold. The extent of the pullback and the support level after this test are worth monitoring. In the context of ongoing institutional accumulation, the medium-term structure remains bullish, but it is still premature to say that the "bull market has returned"—we need to see a firm hold above 75,000 along with increased trading volume to confirm the signal.

Everyone, please note that ETH has increased approximately 13% over the past 7 days and about 16% over the past 30 days, with the current price around $2,300. After this rally, the market has entered a short-term overbought zone (daily CCI and KDJ are both in overbought conditions). The $2,400 level is viewed by multiple analysts as a recent resistance zone.

BlackRock and other institutional ETFs experiencing sustained net inflows, exchange BTC supply reaches historic lows, long-term holders accounting for 60% of circulating supply; companies like Strategy continuing to accumulate, institutional structure increasingly solidified. Approximately $2.4 billion in short liquidation positions concentrated near $72,500; if key resistance breaks, upside momentum could be further released.