6.16 Bitcoin Market Outlook: Don't blindly chase highs during the rebound, the FOMC is the ultimate decider

$BTC
Today’s rebound is essentially driven by the geopolitical easing bonus — the US and Iran signing a peace memorandum, boosting global risk appetite directly, US stocks hitting new highs, the dollar weakening, and Bitcoin riding the wave higher. But to be frank: it’s still too early to talk about a reversal; tonight’s FOMC meeting will be the key to determining the market’s fate

Today’s main strategy: buy low, sell high
Buy low: around 655-660, with a support at 650, aiming for 670-680
Sell high: around 670-675, with a support at 680, aiming for 660-650

Positive factors:
Geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, global risk assets are collectively recovering, and the external macro environment is temporarily friendly

Large addresses near the 60k level continue to accumulate, long-term funds are buying at lows, with clear support at the bottom

Negative factors:
FOMC meeting on June 16-17, if hawkish rate cut signals are released, risk assets will come under collective pressure, and this rebound may be immediately reversed

The rally is entirely driven by external macro factors; the crypto industry itself lacks native catalysts like large ETF inflows or policy incentives, raising doubts about the sustainability of the trend

Over the past 24 hours, more than $520 million in positions have been liquidated across the market, with longs accounting for over 63%. There is a severe lack of funds chasing higher prices, and market sentiment remains fragile

On the larger timeframe, the daily chart still remains below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages; the downtrend has not fundamentally changed. Currently, it’s only a rebound after a decline—don’t change your belief just because of one green candle #比特币反弹