$BTC Will it drop back to 30,000 again?

“BTC will enter the final accumulation phase of this cycle, with a maximum decline possibly exceeding 40%”

This analyst based his prediction on the “death cross” pattern observed in Bitcoin’s 3-day chart: since 2014, every time the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average (death cross), there has been a violent downturn 23-33 days later, with a decline of 40%-52%.

The current death cross occurred on February 27. Based on the timeline, the next 3-6 days could mark the final “ultimate accumulation window” of this cycle, and Bitcoin might drop to $30,000–$40,000.

He believes this is the last shakeout before dawn, a “golden pit.”

This analyst’s projection, purely based on candlestick patterns, has indeed been reliable in the “old crypto circle” era.

But he overlooked a fundamental variable: the structure of market participants has completely changed.

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Why do I think a drastic drop isn’t likely?

1. In the past, it was “retail investors fighting each other,” now it’s “institutions on guard”

Previously, the main players were retail investors and large whales.

When prices fell to a certain level, panic selling would cause a stampede, with no buyers to absorb the sell-off, leading to a free fall.

But now? BlackRock, Fidelity, and other giants managing trillions of dollars are in the game. You think they’ll let the price crash to $30,000? That’s like leading themselves into a trap.

Their cost basis is around $50,000–$60,000. As long as the price stays below their cost, they’re more eager to defend the price than retail investors.

2. This decline isn’t for “liquidation,” but for “rebalancing”

The current volatility is essentially large institutions accumulating more positions.

They need to shake out those old retail investors with extremely low-cost holdings and convert them into their own positions.

Since it’s about accumulation, they’ll control the cost.

If the price drops to $30,000, they’ll incur losses themselves. If other big players snatch up the low-cost chips, it would be a loss for them. So, the bottom must be raised.

3. More “state capital” and “public companies” involved

El Salvador, Bhutan, and even some US states are making moves.

These “long-term capital” aren’t here for short-term swings; they’re here for asset allocation. With their support at the bottom, a collapse to $30,000–$40,000 is nearly impossible.

Short-term volatility is inevitable, and the price might even spike above $50,000 to shake out some bulls.

But I believe the chance of dropping back to $30,000–$40,000 is almost zero.

The market’s fundamentals have already changed. #BTC行情