Not likely. This scenario describes a classic trust problem:

**Why skepticism is reasonable:**

- **No real consequence yet** – He's only sorry because he got caught/cornered, not because he understands the harm
- **Desperation talking** – Promises made under pressure rarely stick once pressure eases
- **Pattern history** – Years of behavior suggests deep patterns, not just mistakes
- **No actual change** – He hasn't done anything yet to prove he's different; he's just incentivized to say what you want to hear
- **Rejection by peers** – His friends refusing to help suggests others don't trust him either

**What might actually matter:**

- Does he acknowledge *why* it was wrong? (Not just "I got caught")
- What concrete changes would he make?
- Is there accountability beyond just promises?
- Can trust be rebuilt gradually with consistent behavior over time?

**The hard truth:** Trust built on leverage isn't really trust—it's compliance. Real change usually requires:
- Genuine remorse (not just regret about consequences)
- Visible behavioral change over months/years
- Him proving it to *you*, not just telling you

So no, I wouldn't believe the promise. But I might believe actions, eventually, if they were sustained.