That's it, today surged even higher.

#美伊局势影响
The US-Iran conflict entered its fifth day, with the intensity of the situation exceeding most people's expectations. I've noticed several developments significant enough to shake the market, and I'll share my observations and bull/bear perspectives simply.
🔥 The "decisive battle" on the battlefield I'm watching
It's no longer just small-scale friction, but systematic offense and defense. I have two key points of focus:
1. De facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: Iran's FARS News Agency confirmed that 26 oil tankers are loitering in the strait, 27 have stopped operations, and 12 million barrels of crude oil carrying capacity is frozen. This isn't just a slogan of "not allowing a single drop of oil to flow out," but a real cutoff.
2. Spillover and "indiscriminate" nature of the conflict: The US Consulate in Dubai came under drone attack, Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base housing US forces was hit by missiles, and France even deployed Rafale fighter jets for defense. This shows the flames of war have reached the UAE and Qatar, traditionally viewed as "safe havens" for wealthy Gulf states, with energy facility shutdown risks rising sharply.
📈 Ice and fire of energy, shipping, and safe-haven assets
The market's reaction these past few days has been very direct, but divergence is intensifying:
· Energy (crude oil/natural gas): Brief violent rally followed by massive volatility. Though oil stocks pulled back today, this isn't the end of the logic, but rather profit-taking and messaging dynamics (like US considering convoy operations). The key is that Qatar LNG production stoppage and Iraqi Rumaila oil field closure are real supply reductions. Before the blockade is lifted, the "risk premium" on oil and gas won't disappear.
· Shipping and supply chains: The Strait of Hormuz is the only passage for 1/5 of global oil and substantial LNG. War risk insurance premiums have skyrocketed now, with some insurers even considering canceling war coverage, and freight rates will inevitably surge. Though companies like Seaspan don't have Middle East operations, global logistics chain disruption has already begun transmitting.
· Defense and military-industrial complex: One of the hardest logic directions. Iran claimed it destroyed the US "THAAD" system, meaning modern warfare has unlimited demand for air defense, anti-missile, and precision-guided systems. The military-industrial sector isn't just thematic speculation, but real inventory consumption expectations.
· Safe-haven assets (gold/BTC): An interesting divergence appears here.
· Gold: Remains steady, spot prices rebounded above $5,150, the true "ballast stone."
· BTC: Broke through $71,000 today. While BTC frequently displayed "risk asset" characteristics, in this context where the Middle East powder keg has exploded and the dollar credit system faces potential impact, I'm increasingly inclined to view BTC as a dual carrier of "digital gold" + "liquidity escape hatch from traditional finance." The market seems to be voting with its rally, believing it's the optimal solution under geopolitical conflict and inflation expectations.
🎯 Current multi-directional opportunities worth watching
As a trader, don't chase indiscriminately, but seek structural opportunities:
1. Go long on volatility (especially high exposure to oil and gas): Though oil prices pulled back intraday, the Strait of Hormuz stalemate won't resolve in a day or two. If US "escort" statements cause oil prices to crash, as long as the strait hasn't achieved substantive resumption of traffic, it's a play point for short-term longs. Focus on oil services and energy stocks directly tied to Middle East production.
2. Military-industrial "new domains and new qualities": As Galaxy Securities pointed out, don't just focus on traditional shipbuilding; focus on drones (like Aerospace Rainbow), anti-missile systems, military communications and other niche sectors that stood out in this conflict.
3. Beware "stagflation" trades: Both Nikkei and Oxford Research Institute analyses point to stagflation risks. If oil prices stay elevated long-term, inflation will be very stubborn. In such cases, going long gold/BTC is the preferred strategy to hedge sovereign currency depreciation.
4. Potential short opportunities: If Trump's claim holds true and the US Navy begins large-scale escort operations, or if Saudi Arabia and UAE rapidly activate pipelines bypassing Hormuz (though capacity is limited), the short-term oil price bubble could burst.