Jefferies predicts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 31% in 2026

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-03T05:57:53+00:00

Jefferies analyst Edison Lee warns that soaring memory costs will lead to a 31% decline in global smartphone shipments by 2026, with Samsung and Apple benefiting, gaining 7% and 5% market share respectively. Meanwhile, Xiaomi, heavily reliant on low-end models, will face the greatest pressure, with an estimated shipment decline of 55%.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-03 05:57:53

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Investing.com - Jefferies analyst Edison Lee stated that with memory costs soaring far beyond previous expectations, global smartphone manufacturers will face a sharp contraction this year.

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The company now forecasts that “global smartphone shipments will decline by 31% in 2026” to 867 million units, a significant downward revision from the earlier estimated 12% decline.

Lee said that the company’s survey shows that memory costs for standard Android devices will “increase approximately 3.6 times year-over-year, while Apple’s will be about 4.2 times,” reversing their previous assumption of an 80% annual growth rate.

The firm emphasized that “mobile DRAM (LPDDR5) prices have increased 70% month-over-month or 151% year-over-year,” while NAND prices only “rose 80% quarter-over-quarter or 360% year-over-year” in the first quarter. The firm added that price increases in the second quarter “may exceed 50% month-over-month,” intensifying pressure across the industry.

As a result, Jefferies expects a clear divergence between winners and losers. Samsung and Apple are expected to gain market share, with Jefferies predicting both will “each gain 7 and 5 percentage points of share,” respectively. Samsung benefits from secured memory supply, while Apple leverages its customer base that is less sensitive to price.

Among Chinese brands, Jefferies warns that Xiaomi faces the greatest pressure due to its reliance on low-end models.

The firm estimates Xiaomi’s 2026 shipments will “drop by 55%… partially offset by a 31% increase in average selling price.” Other major Chinese OEMs, including OPPO, vivo, and Transsion, are expected to see shipment declines of 45% to 52%.

Jefferies concludes that soaring memory prices “will maximize market share gains for Samsung and Apple, while Chinese OEMs will be the biggest losers.”

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