3.2 This Week's Highlights!

Intercontinental Oil & Gas (600759) Brief: After the holiday, the market moved up for four days, adjusted for two days, and recovered for two days. Last Friday, it surged then fell back, indicating the correction has ended. Commodities surged for two days, then retreated for two days. The last day saw significant divergence in the chemical sector, suggesting the short-term trend has come to an end. Only some metals sectors are still strong. If we look at the entire February market as a whole, the best performers were non-ferrous metals, so February can be considered a metals month. Combining with January, it’s a two-month cycle of sector stocks, with rotations in AI, aerospace, photovoltaics, and computing power. As March begins, this week marks the start of the Two Sessions, so the focus will be on related themes and battles. Last Friday, quantum technology, electricity, and new energy storage sectors showed unusual activity. This week, we’ll see which sector maintains the best momentum. Next, let’s analyze the index levels and sentiment cycles:

1. Index Cycle Thinking:

The index is fluctuating around 4150 points. The main bullish force comes from cyclical sectors. With the Two Sessions expected this week, historically, the index tends to be more stable around such events. Therefore, maintaining a sideways trend without new highs is possible. This is the current thinking on the index cycle.

2. Sentiment Cycle Projection:

First, Dragon Analysis: Due to the overlap of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the market was less coherent, leading to some misjudgments. There was a Seedance (pause or consolidation). Without Seedance, February can be understood as the first half being gold and silver metals entering correction, and after the correction in the second half, a recovery began. Some metals stood out, reflecting a subdivision extension after a major cycle. This explains the two-month cycle of sector stocks, with the current market likely focusing on sectors that haven’t been heavily traded before, paying attention to market anomalies.

Second, Opportunity Analysis: After the holiday, trading volume increased from over 1000 billion, 2000 billion, to a few hundred billion last Friday, showing diminishing marginal capital participation. As March begins, with the Two Sessions approaching, the market will revolve around themes related to the sessions. For example, last Friday’s activity in quantum tech, environmental protection, electricity, and photovoltaics may lead to new themes this week, driven by news. For AI, computing power, and domestic chip industries, institutions are pushing these sectors again. While the direction is sound, explosive rallies are unlikely. Some stocks may have major upward waves, but most will trend upward in a sideways manner. Pay attention to rhythm. For instance, last Friday’s AI surged then fell back; this week, watch whether Yunnan Energy Holding can sustain an 8-board surge beyond regulatory expectations, driving AI back. If it can, expect repeated fluctuations; if not, adjust expectations downward. Based on capital preferences in 2026, there’s a tilt toward non-tech growth sectors, as the index is relatively high, and capital favors value over growth.

Special Reminder: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. No stock recommendations are provided! Investing involves risks; please proceed cautiously!