International gold, silver, and oil prices collectively surge! Trump says he agrees to dialogue with Iran's new leadership

Oil, gold, and silver prices are all rising collectively!

During the Asian morning trading session, international oil prices surged sharply, with WTI crude futures opening up over 11%; Brent crude oil soared 13% to $82 per barrel.

Gold and silver prices also rose across the board, with spot gold temporarily up over 1.5%, breaking through $5,360 per ounce; spot silver rose nearly 2%, breaking through $95 per ounce during trading. As of the time of writing, both gold and silver prices have pulled back slightly from their highs.

During trading, the US dollar index (DXY) briefly rose above 98, with intraday gains approaching 0.40%. As of the latest update, the dollar index’s increase has narrowed to 0.26%.

On March 1, local time, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued a warning that if Iran’s oil and gas facilities are attacked, all regional oil and gas infrastructure will be destroyed in response.

According to CCTV News, on March 1, U.S. President Trump stated that military actions against Iran could last about four weeks. Additionally, Trump posted on social media that the U.S. has destroyed and sunk nine Iranian Navy vessels and will continue to target the remaining ships. He also claimed that in another attack, the U.S. “destroyed” the Iranian Navy headquarters.

Furthermore, on March 1, local time, leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement indicating they may take “necessary defensive actions” against Iran. The three leaders agreed to cooperate with the U.S. and other regional allies.

Later on the night of March 1, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the ninth round of “Real Commitment 4” operations had begun, targeting Israeli territory and U.S. targets in the region. The IRGC also stated that it has shot down a total of 20 “Hurmuz” drones (Iran’s term for “Hermes” drones) and 2 U.S. MQ-9 drones so far.

According to a notice issued by the IRGC on the evening of March 1 regarding Operation “Real Commitment 4” No. 8, Iran’s retaliatory actions have resulted in “560” U.S. military casualties.

Later that night, the IRGC announced that the ninth round of “Real Commitment 4” operations targeting Israel and U.S. targets in the region had begun.

International Oil Prices Surge

On the morning of March 2, international oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude opening up 13%, breaking through $82 per barrel.

Previously, CCTV News reported that on the evening of February 28, Iran’s IRGC announced a ban on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports suggest that with the halt of traffic from oil tankers and other vessels, the strait has effectively been closed.

Additionally, on March 1, a tanker attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz was hit. On the same day, Maersk announced rerouting its Middle East to India to Mediterranean route (ME11) and Middle East to U.S. East Coast route (MECL) via the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk stated that due to escalating military conflicts in the Middle East and worsening security conditions, after close coordination with security partners, it has decided to temporarily suspend future Suez Canal routes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. All ME11 and MECL routes will now reroute via the Cape of Good Hope.

CNBC pointed out that attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, a member of OPEC, could cause significant disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, potentially triggering a global recession in the worst case. Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC, with a daily output slightly over 3 million barrels as of January this year. The country is near the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical waterway for oil trade.

Kpler data shows that the strait between Oman and Iran is a key global crude oil transportation route and a potential bottleneck. About 13 million barrels of oil pass through this strait daily in 2025, accounting for roughly 31% of global maritime oil shipments. It connects major Gulf oil producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and the UAE with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy, warned that traders are underestimating the threat of Iran’s retaliation against U.S. attacks. He said, “This is serious.” McNally suggested that Iran might threaten the security of the Strait of Hormuz to deter U.S. actions, which could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. He also noted that the market has not fully recognized Iran’s large stockpiles of sea mines and short-range missiles capable of severely disrupting shipping through the strait.

For global markets, the nightmare isn’t just the loss of Iranian oil but the broader disruption of strait shipping. Sol Covo, head of MST Marquee Energy Research, said: “If Iran successfully closes the Strait of Hormuz, the impact on global oil markets could be severe. This could push oil prices into triple digits, while liquefied natural gas prices could challenge the 2022 record highs again.”

Industry experts emphasize that the key issue is the duration of the disruption. McNally stated that the extent of increases in oil and LNG prices will depend on how long and how widespread the disruptions in Gulf production and transportation are.

Goldman Sachs estimates the real-time risk premium for oil at $18 per barrel, reflecting their assessment of the impact of a complete six-week shutdown of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank’s report states that this risk premium implies the market is pricing in a daily global supply interruption of 2.3 million barrels over a year. This estimate is based on an 15% weekend increase in WTI retail prices by IG Group. Goldman Sachs added, “While our risk outlook is skewed to the upside, history shows that price spikes driven by geopolitical shocks or temporary supply disruptions can be short-lived.”

Gold and Silver Prices Rise

This morning during the Asian trading session, gold and silver prices also surged collectively. Spot gold briefly broke through $5,360 per ounce, and spot silver surpassed $95 per ounce. As of the latest update, spot gold is up 1.40% at $5,351 per ounce, and spot silver is up 1.50% at $95.15 per ounce.

Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, attributed the sharp rise in precious metals to increased risk aversion amid the Middle East tensions. He noted that the escalation of regional conflicts could negatively impact investor sentiment and potentially shake global stock markets. He emphasized the need to monitor developments closely; if the situation worsens, volatility in oil, gold, and silver prices, as well as global stock market adjustments, could intensify.

CITIC Securities pointed out that since 1970, during eight major conflicts in the Middle East (the Yom Kippur War, Iran-Iraq War, 2nd Lebanon War, Gulf War, Afghanistan War, Iraq War, Syrian Civil War, and Israeli-Palestinian conflicts), asset price movements in initial stages showed certain patterns. Historically, in terms of safe-haven assets, gold prices tend to be more significantly catalyzed by Middle East conflicts compared to the dollar, with the strongest phase of geopolitical influence on gold occurring within about 10 days of conflict outbreak. Expectations before the conflict also play a key role in price reactions.

Wang Yanqing, chief analyst of precious metals at CITIC Futures, noted that geopolitical conflicts tend to impact gold prices in a pulse-like manner: in the short term, rising risk aversion boosts gold prices, but as tensions ease, prices tend to stabilize gradually.

Qu Rui, senior deputy director of research at Orient Securities, pointed out that in the short term, risk aversion will be the main driver of gold prices, while in the medium to long term, multiple fundamental factors will resonate to support an upward trend. Specifically, U.S.-Iran military conflicts directly trigger risk aversion spikes, pushing gold prices higher. The future short-term trend will heavily depend on the intensity of Iran’s retaliation and the scope of conflict spread.

It’s important to note that gold prices have already accumulated significant gains in the short term, so there is a risk of a correction if geopolitical sentiment subsides. Caution is advised when chasing gains. However, as long as geopolitical uncertainties persist, the U.S. dollar remains weak, and central bank gold purchases continue, the medium- to long-term value of gold as a hedge against systemic risks remains prominent.

“Escalating Middle East geopolitical risks highlight the value of precious metals as safe-haven assets. From the perspective of pricing logic, it’s crucial to monitor the evolution of the situation: if conflicts escalate further, precious metals could rebound strongly driven by safe-haven demand after the deep correction since late January; if the situation shifts toward ‘peace talks’ or negotiations, there’s a risk of high-level profit-taking as risk sentiment wanes. Investors should dynamically assess the sustainability of geopolitical premiums and manage volatility,” said Nanhua Futures in its latest research report.

From a medium-term perspective, expectations of easing monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, weakening of Fed independence, and various external uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions, international trade, and global financial markets will continue to support increased demand for gold and silver investments, favoring further price increases in the first half of the year.

Nanhua Futures also noted that on a longer cycle, the credibility of the global dollar-dominated fiat currency system continues to weaken. Core issues like the unsustainability of U.S. fiscal policy and the loosening of dollar hegemony are becoming more prominent, accelerating the process of de-dollarization worldwide. This trend has driven central banks globally to increase their gold reserves and has sparked a contest over gold pricing power and a restructuring of the global gold market system, laying a solid foundation for long-term gains in gold and silver.

Recently, JPMorgan analysts stated that the strong and sustained demand for gold from central banks and investors through 2026 will ultimately push the gold price to $6,300 per ounce by year-end. The bank also raised its long-term gold price forecast to $4,500 per ounce. Meanwhile, a report from Bank of America predicts gold could reach $6,000 per ounce within the next 12 months.

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