Middle East conflict escalation triggers a global "risk aversion wave": gold, silver, and oil rise together, US stock futures decline

On March 2nd, the sudden escalation of tensions in the Middle East triggered sharp fluctuations in global markets, with funds flooding into safe-haven assets. On Monday morning in Asia, spot gold and silver opened higher across the board, international oil prices surged by as much as $8, and U.S. stock index futures generally declined. Spot gold rose to $5,374 per ounce, up 1.8%; spot silver was at $96 per ounce, up 2.6%. International oil prices jumped significantly, with Brent Crude briefly reaching $82.37 per barrel and WTI Crude rising to $80.82 per barrel. Markets are concerned that escalating US-Iran conflict could impact shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about a quarter of global oil shipments. In the U.S. stock market, the three major index futures opened lower, with Nasdaq and Dow futures down over 1%, and S&P 500 futures down more than 0.9%. Funds flowed into traditional safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries, gold, and Swiss francs. Several institutions warned that if oil prices continue to rise to the $90–$100 per barrel range, inflationary pressures could re-emerge, and the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path might need to be adjusted. Some strategists pointed out that global stock valuations are currently high, and combined with geopolitical shocks, short-term “risk-off” trading may dominate the market. The market generally believes that the future trend will depend on whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains smooth and whether the conflict becomes prolonged. If energy transportation remains materially unaffected, risk assets may stabilize temporarily; but if the situation continues to escalate, rising oil prices and inflation expectations could resonate upward, putting greater pressure on global equities and emerging market assets.