Global asset management giants' latest holdings reveal AI investment shows "bull and bear divergence"

With the completion of the US 13F filings, the rebalancing strategies of global asset management giants in Q4 of last year have come to light. Faced with high valuations in tech stocks and market concerns over AI investment prospects, major institutions have shown significant divergence in their actions. UBS, Goldman Sachs, and others have reduced holdings in leading tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft, while Silicon Valley “Venture Capital Guru” Peter Thiel’s fund completely sold off its holdings in Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. Meanwhile, BlackRock and Vanguard continued to increase their positions in multiple tech stocks.

According to the US 13F filings, in Q4 of last year, UBS reduced its holdings of Nvidia by 10.47%, selling 10.04 million shares; Microsoft by 7.64%, selling 2.32 million shares; Apple by 10.57%, selling 5.27 million shares; Amazon by 4.57%, selling 1.66 million shares; and Google by 9.05%, selling 2.2 million shares. Goldman Sachs sold 3.2 million shares of Microsoft (5.86%), 2.47 million shares of Tesla (8.27%), 3.43 million shares of Broadcom (9.33%), and 2.41 million shares of Meta (13.51%).

Notably, in Q4 of last year, Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro Fund sold all its holdings in Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla. In fact, as early as Q3 of last year, Thiel Macro had completely liquidated its 540,000 shares of Nvidia. By the end of last year’s Q4, the fund no longer held any long US equity positions that needed to be disclosed in 13F filings.

On the other side of the debate, institutions like BlackRock and Vanguard continued to add to their positions in leading tech stocks. Specifically, in Q4, BlackRock increased holdings in Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google by 14.55 million, 8.33 million, 10.04 million, 12.03 million, and 13.55 million shares respectively. Vanguard added 43.15 million shares of Nvidia, which remains its largest holding, along with increases in Apple (26.86 million shares), Microsoft (15.96 million shares), and Google (12.53 million shares).

The divergence in asset management strategies reflects intense market debate over AI investment prospects. Recent results from a February global fund manager survey by US banks show that while fund managers remain highly optimistic overall, 25% of respondents see the AI bubble as the primary tail risk. Additionally, 20% of fund managers consider buying top US tech stocks—including Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla—as the most crowded trade.

Liu Changfeng, Head of Market Strategy at Union Investment, noted that recent large-cap tech companies have significantly increased capital expenditure in AI, demonstrating industry confidence in AI’s future potential but also exerting considerable pressure on their short-term free cash flow. Meanwhile, recent advances in AI technology, especially in automation and efficiency improvements, are beginning to pose potential substitution risks to some traditional software and SaaS companies, adding volatility to the US stock market.

Recently, Nvidia, a global AI leader, reported record-high revenue and profits. However, despite these impressive results, Wall Street’s nerves remain frayed. The day after the earnings release, Nvidia’s stock plummeted over 5%, wiping nearly $260 billion off its market cap overnight.

Looking ahead, Liu Changfeng believes AI will remain a long-term and evolving key investment theme. However, given that valuations of major US tech companies are already relatively high—especially when considering the price-to-free cash flow ratio—the surge in capital expenditure further amplifies this pressure. Investors should adopt a broader and more diversified approach when positioning in AI.

Chen Xiayi, Senior Investment Strategist and Managing Director at Franklin Templeton Institute, stated that the breakthrough and widespread application of AI technology is a critical turning point from transformation to leapfrogging. As technological fission accelerates, the focus of the US stock market is shifting toward substantive assessments of AI application capabilities and scope. Future investments will likely emphasize AI “integrators” and enablers across software, IT services, and certain semiconductor sectors, rather than solely concentrating on hyperscale cloud service providers and capital-intensive companies.