Q4 2025 manganese ore supply slightly exceeds demand

South32’s manganese ore production in Q4 2025 is 1.363 million tons, up 21.26% year-on-year but down 2.99% quarter-on-quarter. The Australian mine’s production plan for fiscal year 2026 remains at 3.2 million tons. The South African mine’s production target stays at 2 million tons. Comilog’s Q4 output is 1.68 million tons, an increase of 35.81% year-on-year but a decrease of 10.35% quarter-on-quarter. Due to ongoing issues with railway transportation, manganese ore transportation volume remains difficult to increase significantly. The offshore cash cost in 2026 is expected to be between $2.4 and $2.6 per dry metric ton, with the positive impact of increased production largely offset by unfavorable EUR/USD exchange rates. Considering that railway transportation in Gabon still faces certain challenges, manganese ore transportation volume is expected to remain difficult to elevate to higher levels. Overall, in Q4 2025, due to the recovery of South32’s Australian mine supply and the railway-related transportation constraints affecting Comilog’s shipments, short-term increases are unlikely, and manganese ore will maintain a healthy oversupply level. It is anticipated that manganese ore prices may see a slight upward movement in 2026. (Guotou Futures)