Bitwise: Bitcoin investors need to hold for at least 3 years to avoid losses, with nearly a 50% chance of loss from short-term trading

SmartContractAuditor · 2026-03-01T09:01:14+00:00

Analysis by Bitwise Asset Management shows that holding Bitcoin for at least three years reduces the probability of loss to 0.70%, and five years lowers it further to 0.2%. In comparison, investors holding for less than three years face a higher risk of loss. The current Bitcoin price is around $65,000, but investors holding for three to five years still have a 90% unrealized profit.

SmartContractAuditor

2026-03-01 09:01:14

Abstract generation in progress

Odaily Planet Daily News: Digital asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management analyzed price data covering July 17, 2010, to February 11, 2026. The analysis shows that if investors hold Bitcoin for at least three years, the historical probability of experiencing a loss is only 0.70%. The longer the holding period, the lower the risk of loss. For example, holding Bitcoin for 5 years reduces the loss probability to 0.2%, and holding for 10 years results in a 0% loss probability. In contrast, investors with holding periods of less than three years face higher risks, with intraday buyers having a 47.1% chance of unrealized losses, a 44.7% chance over one week, and a 43.2% chance over one month. Even after one year, the loss probability remains at 24.3%. Bitwise points out that the current Bitcoin price is about $65,000, roughly 50% below the October 2025 peak. However, the realized price for the three- to five-year holding group is approximately $34,780, indicating that overall, investors in this range are still in about 90% unrealized profit. (Cointelegraph)

BTC3,88%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.