Middle East Situation Disrupts Imports Industry Experts: Methanol Prices May Rise Significantly

Conflict erupts in the Middle East, potentially affecting methanol imports. A reporter from Cailian Press interviewed relevant listed companies and learned that methanol prices have recently rebounded slightly. “Futures haven’t opened yet, but spot prices have increased by about 30 yuan per ton. If import volumes decrease later, methanol prices could rise rapidly,” a methanol industry insider in Shandong told Cailian Press on February 28.

“Recently, methanol prices haven’t changed much. Our company’s methanol is in full production and sales. With the Middle East conflict, attention to methanol has indeed increased significantly. However, how prices will fluctuate in the future depends on supply and demand,” said a staff member from Jinniu Chemical (600722.SH), who contacted Cailian Press as an investor. A staff member from Jiangsu Sopo (600746.SH) previously revealed that the company’s methanol prices follow market trends, though downstream acetic acid prices have recently risen.

Xue Fe, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information (301299.SZ), stated that in February, the Middle East’s methanol shipping volume decreased. If the conflict persists, shipments could continue to decline in March, tightening domestic methanol supply and potentially causing wide price increases.

Middle East Conflict May Impact Methanol Imports

Customs data show that from January to November 2025, China’s methanol imports totaled approximately 12.7 million tons, a 2.6% year-over-year increase. The largest source country is Iran, accounting for about 60%, with the entire Middle East region contributing nearly 70% of China’s methanol imports. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on supply.

The domestic methanol market has been segmented. The inland market mainly relies on domestic supply, with continuous capacity additions of CTO units and increased self-use by enterprises in recent years. Ports mainly depend on imports, with regions like East China having a much higher import dependency than the national average. Therefore, if the Middle East conflict escalates and logistics halt, China could face a substantial supply gap in imported methanol, intensifying market tension along the coast.

Xue Fe said that the Middle East situation has raised concerns about future methanol import supplies. The daily price of methanol in Taicang has risen again, and in the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate frequently.

Data from Zhuo Chuang Information show that by noon on the 28th, spot methanol in Jiangsu was temporarily priced at 2185-2200 yuan/ton, up 37.5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a 1.74% increase. In the afternoon, trading activity slowed, with few active bids.

Xue Fe noted that as of February 28, the main export countries in the Middle East shipped 275,000 tons of methanol in February, down 157,000 tons from the previous month, a 36.34% decrease. Iran’s two planned restart units, totaling 3.3 million tons, have been delayed. Additionally, Middle East freight rates have risen significantly. If the conflict continues, shipments in March may continue to decline, compounded by urgent demand to fill gaps, potentially pushing prices higher in the short term. However, the extent of the increase will depend on recent transportation conditions at Asaluyeh port and the Strait of Hormuz.

Coal-to-Methanol May Boost Profits

Shanghai Ganglian Data shows that in recent years, raw coal prices have generally declined, leading to a recovery in profits for coal-based methanol producers and increased capacity utilization. Coke oven gas-based methanol has maintained good profitability, with high operating rates. Meanwhile, natural gas-based methanol profits have been under pressure, with declining capacity utilization, which has somewhat lowered overall domestic methanol capacity utilization. Thanks to the structural advantage that coal-based methanol accounts for 77.29% of total capacity, the overall domestic methanol capacity utilization rate is expected to significantly improve by 2025 compared to previous years.

Among listed companies in the industry chain, Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) is a leading coal-based methanol producer with a capacity of about 7.4 million tons per year. The company is promoting “Liquid Sunshine” technology, with a production cost per ton below the industry average by 300-500 yuan.

China Coal Energy (601898.SH) has over 4 million tons of methanol capacity annually, leveraging coal resources for low-cost production and benefiting from integrated coal chemical advantages. Yankuang Energy (600188.SH) has over 3 million tons of capacity and is advancing low-carbon methanol technology upgrades.

China National Chemical Corporation (601117.SH) is a leader in green methanol production processes and core equipment (electrolyzers, synthesis reactors) R&D and EPC. CIMC Anrui (03899.HK) is a key supplier of green methanol storage, transportation, and refueling equipment and systems, suitable for shipping and other applications.

Companies Are Actively Investing

By the end of April 2026, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) will hold a meeting to promote the final implementation of the world’s first legally binding net-zero emission framework for shipping. This has led research institutions to generally expect a surge in demand for green methanol in the shipping industry over the next five years, from tens of thousands of tons annually now to 30-40 million tons by 2030, an increase of over 100 times. By 2030, the green methanol market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan.

Recently, A-share listed companies have been actively involved in green methanol projects.

In February 2026, Goldwind Science & Technology (002202.SZ) received approval for its third phase in Xing’an League, with a capacity of 725,000 tons of green hydrogen-based methanol, with a total investment of 2.3 billion yuan. The project is expected to start construction in May 2026 and be completed by May 2028. The first phase, with 250,000 tons, is already in operation, and environmental assessments for the second phase (600,000 tons) are underway.

In December 2025, Huayi Group (600623.SH) officially put into operation a 100,000-ton-per-year green methanol project.

On January 31, Fujei Technology (688335.SH) successfully completed a pilot of a thousand-ton-level biogas-to-green methanol process at Laogang, Shanghai, with the first batch of products released. The product has received ISCC dual certification, with a carbon reduction rate of over 95%, purity of 99.99%, and a 100,000-ton industrialization project underway.

China Tianying (000035.SZ) announced on February 26 that it has signed the world’s first electric-produced methanol supply contract with a major international energy company, marking its green methanol products entering the supply system of mainstream global energy firms. The company is also in talks with multiple international energy and shipping companies for electric methanol supply, with potential for ongoing new orders.

On December 14 of last year, Jiazé New Energy (601619.SH) announced that its controlling subsidiary, Shanghai Jiayi Rongyuan, and its wholly owned subsidiary, Heilongjiang Jiayi Rongyuan Green Chemical Co., Ltd., plan to raise funds through self-financing and bank loans to invest in a 300,000-ton green hydrogen-based jet fuel chemical co-production project in Jixi City, Jidong County, Heilongjiang Province, with a total investment of approximately 3.557 billion yuan.

(Article source: Cailian Press)