Trend frenzy versus continuous board decline, what's going on with the big A?

Trend Frenzy VS Continuous Limit-down, What’s Happening in Big A?

[Taogu Ba]

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1. For ultra-short trading, watching the bidding is essential. Here are 3 articles specifically teaching bidding techniques, and 1 on buy/sell points. I’ve included the links here:

1. Ultra-short Technique: Collective Bidding Part. Starting Moves!： ；
2. Ultra-short Technique: Advanced Collective Bidding Part.： ；
3. Collective Bidding: Expectation Management Part： ；
4. How to Achieve Precise Buying and Selling： ；

On February 26th at 09:25, bidding limit-up and limit-down:

Analysis:

1. 3 stocks hit the limit-up in bidding (all have buy orders), 0 limit-down, yesterday 3 limit-up (all have buy orders), 2 limit-down, the largest buy order was 400 million, yesterday’s was 1.2 billion. Bidding limit-ups remain sluggish, largest buy orders decreased by 800 million. Jinyuan Shares replaced Chengxing Shares as the top volume leader. Limit-down stocks decreased by 2, overall bidding sentiment weaker than expected.

2. 2-3 stocks:

• Jinzengda (Shandong + Agrochemicals + Eco-agriculture + Price increase), accelerating within expectations, buy orders block Chengxing, internal conflicts hint at thematic divergence.
• Chengxing Shares (Jiangsu + Agrochemicals + Green Power + Price increase), accelerating within expectations, buy orders blocked by Jinzengda, lithium battery positive factors not recognized, implying high open risk for lithium stocks.

3. First limit-up stock: 1

• Jinyuan Shares (Northeast + Lithium minerals), news stimulus, buy orders only 400 million, insufficient to boost lithium battery stocks, the purpose is to enhance recognition for Jinzengda.

4. 0 limit-down stocks:
   Analysis: SD retreat ends, no new retreat risks in other cycles, zero one-word limit-downs, indicating the potential for breaking through previous high limits.

2. Closing Data:

1. Major indices: 2 green, 1 red, slight fluctuations. Shanghai Composite -0.01% at 4146.63, Shenzhen +0.19%, ChiNext -0.29%. Turnover 2.5566 trillion, up from 757 billion yesterday. Net inflow -64.05 billion. Market breadth: 2485 advancers to 2870 decliners (3748:1609), limit-up/limit-down ratio: 61:3 (75:3).

Analysis:
Compared to yesterday, individual stock gains and losses show increased divergence. 61 limit-ups, down 14 from yesterday, for three consecutive days. 9 stocks hit the limit-up chain, half of yesterday’s 18, indicating increased divergence and higher tier of limit-ups. Six stocks at 6-limit-up level continue to recover. No focus on profit-making sectors; themes like power, computing power, PCB, gas turbines, chemicals rotate. 3 limit-down stocks unchanged from yesterday; no consecutive limit-downs, indicating weakening extreme loss effects. Overall sentiment score: 185 points, down from 2739, showing weak divergence.

2. Top 10 Trading Significance: Distribution of funds among key stocks, representing the market’s strongest forces, must be watched!

Analysis:

1. Top 10 by trading volume ratio 2:8, normal proportion. Non-main board regains dominance. US stocks occupy 5 seats, domestic computing power and new energy 2 each, commercial aerospace 1. Today, Cambrian, CATL, Runze Tech, Sungrow, Aerospace Development listed. US stocks dominate in top 10, institutional funds continue to increase.
2. Bidding up/down ratio 7:3, consistent bidding. Runze Tech had the highest increase. SD retreat ends, resilient stocks show bidding recovery, CATL had the largest decline, indicating reverse selling on positive news.
3. Closing up/down ratio 8:2, consistent closing. Runze Tech again highest gain, responding to bidding, computing power flows back intra-day, Sungrow had the largest decline, core new energy stocks follow CATL’s adjustments.
4. Total market turnover: from 757 billion yesterday to over 2.5 trillion today. Top 10 turnover matches yesterday’s 267 billion, proportionate to overall market. Top 100 stocks’ up/down ratio 68:32, better than overall market, indicating smaller divergence among market-weighted stocks compared to sentiment-driven stocks.

3. Limit-up and limit-down also reflect extreme profit and loss effects, must be observed!
Limit-down:

Analysis: No change from yesterday, no new limit-down stocks, 20cm limit-down zero, loss effects not focused, no sector pointing to continued decline next day, indicating manageable negative feedback.

Limit-up:

Analysis: After two consecutive limit-downs of Zhangyue Technology and Bona Films, the ultra-short cycle retreat ends. Yunnan Energy Control’s unexpected weak rebound led to a second limit-up, boosting power and computing power stocks. Nvidia’s strong earnings fueled narratives across PCB, gas turbines, liquid cooling, optical fibers, etc. Other themes related to price increases, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, environmental protection stocks surged on news, but only 3 stocks hit the limit-up. Overall, profit effect is not focused; the computing chain can be viewed as a whole but divided into US and domestic segments. The trend is stronger than the limit-up and chain-building, market difficulty slightly eased but still not favored by retail and retail funds.
Chain limit-up analysis:

• 6-limit-up: Yunnan Energy Control (Henan + Power + Reorganization of computing power). First 5-limit-up with high volume, today’s bidding opened limit-down but recovered, ending limit-down to zero. Old cycle retreat ends, power + computing power with safe attributes, reorganization logic resonate, allowing Yunnan Energy Control to shift from weak to strong. Both power and computing power stocks fermented by close.
• 4-limit-up: Farsight (Jiangsu + Optical Fiber). Yesterday noted controlled by third-party, avoiding conflicts with Han Cable. Farsight’s advantage is optical fiber not suppressed by Yunnan Energy Control. Today, Longfei Optical Fiber’s return supports Farsight, which successfully advanced to the chain. Environmental stocks also moved strongly, Farsight’s wastewater treatment gains benefits. If optical fiber and environmental stocks continue to strengthen tomorrow, Farsight’s stock characteristics suggest good chances of further gains.
• 3-limit-up: Jinzengda (Shandong + Agrochemicals + Eco-agriculture + Price increase), accelerating within expectations, buy orders larger than Chengxing Shares, confirming yesterday’s analysis of positioning. Internal competition also increases intra-day divergence. Final close: only 4 chemical stocks hit limit-up, volume shrank significantly from yesterday, indicating no further theme fermentation. Tomorrow’s turnover will determine whether the theme rotates again. Chengxing Shares, with higher turnover, gains advantage. Watch whether both stocks advance or both retreat; if both advance, chemical stocks may reflow.
  Chengxing Shares (Jiangsu + Agrochemicals + Green Power + Price increase), accelerating within expectations, buy orders below expectations, chemical stocks show intra-day divergence, both stocks re-encountered with buy-back, becoming the only two at 3-limit-up level. Green power stocks can leverage environmental benefits. Tomorrow, bidding and Jinzengda will compete again. Also, watch if they are used as proxies for Yunnan Energy Control’s divergence.

2-limit-up stocks (by first limit-up time):

• Yunnan Germanium (Yunnan + Small Metals), bid-up one tier beyond expectations, initial turnover within expectations, then second limit-up unexpectedly, total volume 1.761 billion, slightly higher than yesterday.
• Gannan Energy (Jiangxi + Green Power), Yunnan Energy Control’s power stocks or rebound plays, with a 6.05% rise aiding Yunnan Energy Control’s upgrade. Slow to rise compared to Yunnan Energy Control, may be discarded after use.
• Zhangyuan Tungsten (Jiangxi + Small Metals), tungsten metal’s main upward trend, mimicking previous linkages between Jiangxi Tungsten and Silver, but weaker. Tungsten can relate to PCB and computing power, serving as both hedge and attack. Currently in 2-limit-up tier, alongside Yunnan Germanium, tomorrow’s bidding and intra-day performance will determine if small metals reflow or divergence increases.
• Hongxing Shares (Guangdong + Apparel + Third-party), Meters’ first limit-up after a day of suspension, third-party guidance suggests high-low switching. Next 5-limit-up may be in this batch.
• Tsinghua Environment (Hubei + Environmental Protection + Green Power), late news triggered a “Wudao” board. Environmental stocks aim for main rise; Tsinghua needs large orders to sustain momentum, or overall theme may weaken.

C8 Supermarket:

1. Yunnan XX (monitor for 2 days of no movement)
2. Xiexin XX (funds moving, monitor late)
3. Chengxing XX (watch bidding)
4. Runze XX (monitor large orders during intra-day)

Forecast for February 27: Overall market sentiment shifts to divergence but negative feedback is manageable. Multiple segments in computing power show batch movements, trend stronger than chain-building. Chemical, price increase, small metals show divergence. Watch Nvidia’s US market performance tonight for further clues. The risk is that A-shares’ funds continue to flow back, but without main themes to drive profit, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Tech Index already shows a bearish trend. This A-H gap will eventually be tested—either A-shares fall further or H-shares recover with the help of large A-shares. If this environment persists, the market will likely remain biased towards non-sustained thematic rotations. Control positions and adopt a cautious approach.

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