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I observed that this sensational news did not actually trigger a significant market rebound.
Here are the key points:
1️⃣ The U.S. Supreme Court rules that the President does not have the authority to impose additional tariffs
2️⃣ This ruling is a final and binding decision, with no possibility for further appeal
3️⃣ Approximately $150-175 billion in tariffs already collected are facing refunds
The mainstream view is that the market is beginning to price in: "Tariff removal → inflation decline → increased expectations for rate cuts." However, this logic is overly linear.
The $150-175 billion in tariff refunds will not immediately translate into market liquidity; most of this money is likely to flow into the real economy rather than financial assets, and the entire cycle of investment into the real economy will take at least 6-9 months.