#Gate廣場發帖領五萬美金紅包

Generation complete
Bitcoin's recent volatility has returned. Is this a "bear trap" or "pre-rebound buildup"?🤔
Essentially, this wave of fluctuation is not accidental but a rebalancing of funds and sentiment, much like a spring compressed to its limit—macroeconomic interest rates, ETF flows, and whale entries and exits are all squeezing together, creating a clear short-term sense of panic.

Market Movement Analysis

Macroeconomic Risk Sentiment
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have cooled, with CME showing a 92.2% probability of maintaining current rates in March. After short-term positive inflation data, the momentum did not continue. The market's fear index is only 11, in the "extreme panic" zone. Investors are generally reducing positions to hedge risks, causing BTC/USDT to face downward pressure.
Funding and Leverage Structure
In the past 24 hours, over $326 million in liquidations occurred across the network, with long positions accounting for over 70%. Continuous net outflows over several days (about $173 million outflow on February 15) reflect deleveraging, and the market has entered a phase of forced liquidation. The contract funding rate is slightly positive at (0.0026%), indicating that demand for longs has not completely disappeared.
Institutional and Whale Behavior
On-chain, there are signs of hedging transactions: whales transferring 3,151 BTC (about $222 million) from unknown addresses to Kraken, accompanied by a transfer of the same scale out, indicating liquidity restructuring. Although ETF inflows reached $410 million in a single day, short-term momentum is insufficient to reverse the overall selling pressure.
Technical Resistance
From a technical perspective, BTC/USDT is currently around 68,366.5 USDT, with the daily chart still below the Bollinger middle band. MACD indicates continued bearish momentum, and the KDJ fast line has fallen to low levels. Short-term support is at 67,500 – 68,000 USDT, with resistance concentrated in the 70,000 – 72,000 USDT range.
Market Outlook and Trading Guidance

Overall, the market is somewhat weak in the short term, but there is a bottom support opportunity around 67,500 – 68,000 USDT.

Key Pathways
If Bitcoin can hold steady above 68,000 USDT and break through 70,000 USDT with increased volume, it may attempt to test 72,000 – 73,000 USDT, forming a short-term rebound channel.
If trading volume diminishes or whales continue to transfer to exchanges, the price may revisit 66,500 USDT for a secondary bottom.
Data and Signals
Long/Short Position Ratio: Platform data shows longs account for 58.4%, shorts only 41.6%. This is not just sentiment voting but a real battle of capital; when longs are overly crowded, short-term correction risks tend to accumulate.
Elite Account Movements: Longs account for 62.0%, shorts 38.0%, still leaning bullish overall but showing slight signs of pulling back.
Funding and Market Behavior: According to trading data, about $53 million in contracts were liquidated in the past 24 hours, mainly longs. Open interest across the market has decreased, indicating funds are temporarily withdrawing to hedge, and a bearish wave driven by policy and whale repositioning is brewing.
Trend Positioning
In the short term, the market is in a "low-level consolidation and bottom-building phase." If policies turn dovish and ETF inflows continue, rebound momentum is expected to gradually recover.