#比特币反弹 📈 Technical Analysis: Oversold Rebound, but Trend Remains Unchanged

1. Short-term Signals (4H):
* Bullish Reversal: After touching $60,000 (16-month low), a violent rebound of about 11% occurred today, recovering most of the previous day's decline.
* Indicator Recovery: Bollinger Bands are widening upward, EMA30 and EMA15 form a golden cross, indicating clear short-term support signals.
2. Medium-term Trend (Daily):
* Downward Channel: Despite today's rebound, the overall trend remains in an adjustment cycle. Compared to the October 2025 high of $126,000, the current price has been halved, with a decline of over 22% in the past month.
* Key Support: $68,600-$69,000 is the long-term bull-bear dividing line; losing this level could lead to a return to the downward channel.
💡 Market Sentiment and Risk Control
* Bull-Bear Battle: Today's rebound caused a surge in short positions liquidations, with total market liquidation amount exceeding $300 million within 24 hours, indicating significant disagreement between bulls and bears.
* Risk Reminder: Analysts generally believe this rally is a "sentiment-driven correction" or "technical rebound," not a trend reversal. Under the cautious overall risk appetite, it is unlikely to quickly return to high levels in the short term.
🎯 Operational Strategy Reference
* Short-term: Focus on whether it can hold above $72,000. If it breaks through, the rebound may continue; if resisted and falls back, a new bottom may be tested.
* Medium to Long-term: The current price has significantly retraced, making it relatively friendly for spot positioning, but strict position control is necessary to avoid heavy holdings.