1. Market Overview

According to the latest candlestick data, ETH is currently priced at $2713.48, based on the closing price of the most recent daily candlestick. Over the past 14 days, ETH has experienced a significant pullback from high levels, with the price gradually declining from a high of $3368.82 to the current level, with a notable decline. In the past two days, market volatility has been intense, with the intraday high-low spread widening significantly, with the lowest dipping to $2636.01 and the highest failing to break through $2714.64, indicating that downward pressure remains strong.
In terms of trading volume, during the intense adjustment over the past 14 days, there was a clear surge in volume, with the maximum daily volume reaching 453,485. Recently, trading volume has shrunk significantly, with the latest day only reaching 3,223.38, indicating that investors are increasingly cautious amid the divergence between bulls and bears.
Based on market news and analyst opinions, overall investor confidence is weak. Recent news generally emphasizes that the $2800 level has become a key support for ETH, while continuous monthly closing losses have severely suppressed bullish momentum. Additionally, many analysts remain cautious about ETH's short-term trend, believing that the current downtrend has not yet reversed and that there is a risk of further downside.

2. Technical Analysis
From the 14-day daily candlestick data, ETH has been continuously declining from the high of $3368.82, with the lowest reaching $2636.01. The short-term downtrend is obvious, with limited rebound potential, unable to stabilize above $2900.
From support and resistance perspectives:
Major Resistance Levels:
- The recent high of $3368.82, followed by the range of $3330.26 to $3310.56, which has been a top for multiple rebounds and now represents a significant resistance zone.
- The secondary resistance is around the 10-day moving average, corresponding to the $2950-$3026 range; only if this range is reclaimed can the downtrend be eased.
Major Support Levels:
- Over the past 48 hours, hourly charts have tested the low of $2636.01 multiple times without breaking it, with the $2630-$2660 zone serving as a strong support area.
- Another support is near the daily price of $2710; if this level is lost in the short term, it will test the support below $2636.
In terms of volume, during sharp fluctuations on the daily chart, volume increased, then declined as prices fell, indicating short-term capital withdrawal and increased cautious sentiment. The hourly chart shows multiple rebounds within 48 hours that failed to stabilize above $2780, maintaining a short-term bearish trend.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
News data emphasizes that ETH has repeatedly lost key levels, with the $2800 support zone being tested multiple times, "The $2,800 region has become a meaningful support area, continuously absorbing selling pressure." However, many reports also point out that despite multiple rebounds at this level, overall confidence remains fragile.
There have been no new policy changes. In the past month, no significant policy adjustments have been detected, and regulatory authorities remain relatively stable, with limited impact on the current price trend.
The latest market news mentions that major trading platforms' systems are stable, with no systemic risk events, providing some buffer to short-term market sentiment, but failing to reverse the downward price trend. Looking at the relationship between price and news release times, although there are occasional positive signals, they have not triggered effective rebounds.

4. Analyst Consensus
Consensus among analysts is that ETH's key resistance is at $3360, "ETH resistance: the highest is at 3360, which is the high point of the recent 3-month rectangle consolidation, a clear pressure level."
Support levels are identified as $2638 in the ultra-short term, with an extreme point at $2518, "If it's ultra-short-term scalp support, it's at 2638, with an extreme point at 2518; this is the recent support."
Some believe that ETH has probably not bottomed out yet, "ETH is unfortunately not at our publicly predicted 2658 level, but don't get too happy too early." They point out that there are rebound opportunities on dips but only suggest trading rebounds at previous low stop-loss levels. Additionally, some analysts warn from a leverage liquidation perspective, "ETH could fall to 2500; it would need to be sold off significantly to stop losses or maintain healthy positions, which could cause a second decline in price."
Compared with the actual candlestick movements, analyst views are highly consistent with short-term price trends, with lows and support zones matching, and weak rebounds at high levels not breaking through. Overall, caution is advised.

5. Future Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions
Based on the evolution of the 14-day daily and 48-hour hourly candlestick charts, ETH is in a clearly weak short-term trend. If it breaks below the strong support of $2636-$2660, it is highly likely to continue falling toward the $2518 low. Resistance above is concentrated in the $2900-$3026 range, and a trend reversal cannot be expected before breaking through this zone.
Investors should monitor the key support levels at $2638 and $2518. If these are not clearly broken, short-term rebounds can be considered; if broken, stop-loss is necessary to prevent further downside.
In terms of operations, avoid chasing gains before breaking through the $2900-$3026 range. Aggressive traders can consider small positions near $2638 for a rebound, with stop-loss below $2518. Conservative investors should wait patiently, and only consider entering when volume stabilizes and support is confirmed.

6. Risk Warning
Currently, the market is highly volatile, with trading volume shrinking sharply, and the downtrend is evident. The risk of support breaking is significant; if $2636 is lost, the probability of further decline to $2518 or lower increases. There are no clear reversal signals from technical analysis, and any short-term positive news is unlikely to reverse the weak trend. Investors should strictly control their positions and be prepared for continuous declines triggered by extreme market conditions.
In summary, ETH is currently in a downward channel, with increased volatility and strong cautious sentiment. Short-term rebounds require strict stop-loss implementation, and bottom-fishing should be avoided. Monitoring key support levels and overall market sentiment is crucial for risk management at this stage.