2026-01-17 08:50:11

The non-shanzhai coin market is brewing, with opportunities and risks coexisting.

Recently, the market has been quietly accumulating energy. $BTC surged from 875,000 to 948,000, a considerable increase, but its market share slightly retreated from the high point to 58.7%. Amid this fluctuation, the total market cap of non-shanzhai coins soared by 9.97%—a clear rotation effect.

But don't be fooled by the numbers. The peak season index is only 33, and market enthusiasm has yet to truly ignite. Although traders are generally bullish, there's a problem: the long-short ratio is mostly above 1, even reaching an extreme of 3.06. The longs are overcrowded, which essentially means risk is accumulating. Once a correction occurs, volatility could be fierce.

On the technical side, TOTAL3 continues to strengthen, with a chance to test the historical high of 1.19 trillion. However, on-chain capital inflows are modest, and exchange stablecoin reserves are declining, indicating limited new capital injection. The current rally is more driven by existing funds switching between sectors rather than new capital entering—this is a key distinction.

In summary: opportunities do exist, but they are not as safe as imagined. Before entering, keep a close eye on market rhythm changes and avoid being blinded by short-term performance.

BTC-0,33%

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CommunityWorker

· 14h ago

Switching of existing funds? Isn't that just a game of hot potato? Sooner or later, someone will have to take the last turn. --- Long position 3.06x? How crazy do you have to be to stack to that level? I'm scared. --- Peak season index 33, still dare to talk about energy accumulation? This is just a lukewarm market. --- I’m optimistic about TOTAL3, but stablecoins are running, which makes this signal a bit confusing. --- Limited new capital influx? That just means the money from retail investors has already come in. --- Don’t get carried away +1. I already know someone who’s gone all-in; I’m overwhelmed. --- On-chain funds are quite average, and that’s the most critical point—no one is really stepping in to take over.

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ProtocolRebel

· 14h ago

Longs crowded to 3.06? That's outrageous, sooner or later you'll get hit. --- Switching of existing funds? Basically, it's just mutual harvesting. --- Only 33 in popularity during the peak season, only gamblers dare to get in. --- Looks like the price is rising happily, but on-chain funds haven't kept up, which is the most heartbreaking part. --- Limited new capital influx indicates big players are offloading, wake up. --- Wait, TOTAL3 hitting 1.19 trillion? Still, we need to see stablecoin reserves rebound before taking action. --- Stop talking, it's that same long trap again, I choose to wait and see. --- Market energy buildup is nonsense, this is just accumulation. --- Risks are piling up right in front of us, do you really want to wait for an explosion before running? --- Switching of existing funds, sounds like someone is just cutting others' meat.

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GweiTooHigh

· 14h ago

Longs with 3x leverage are crowded, one correction and it will blow up. Playing with fire, everyone. Switching of existing funds? Sounds like hot potato, it will blow up sooner or later. BTC's market share increased as it rose, which means funds are fleeing. Peak season index 33? It hasn't really arrived yet, don't rush to go all-in. On-chain funds are flat, stablecoins are withdrawing, new money isn't coming in. This rally feels a bit虚假. Where is the real incremental capital? I haven't felt it. Wait, could this be another scheme by the whales to harvest retail investors?

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LiquidityOracle

· 14h ago

Bullish sentiment is so crowded, I just feel uneasy. Switching of existing funds? That's a zero-sum game. Can TOTAL3 hit a new high this wave? It depends on when stablecoin reserves will recover. Short-term gains are satisfying, but long-term pain is real. Better to be cautious. Long-short ratio 3.06? I can already smell the blood.

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Ser_APY_2000

· 14h ago

The bulls are so crowded, I'm really a bit scared Switching of existing funds? Sounds like a game of hot potato, it's about time to wake up The peak season index hasn't even hit 33 yet, what are you bragging about?

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