2026-01-17 08:25:22

Conclusion first: The backtest data from the past five years shows that the returns from a 3x leveraged dollar-cost averaging strategy are only 3.5% higher than a 2x leverage, but the risk of near liquidation is significantly higher. Considering risk, return, and feasibility, spot dollar-cost averaging remains the long-term solution. 2x is already the limit, and 3x is hardly worth it.

Just look at the five-year net value curve. Spot buying steadily rises, with manageable drawdowns; 2x leverage clearly amplifies gains during bull markets; what about 3x? Multiple "ground-hugging" movements, with long-term market volatility eroding gains. Although in the rebound of 2025-2026, 3x slightly outperforms, over several years, its net value is consistently suppressed by 2x leverage.

Even more painful is the comparison of returns. From 1x to 2x, you earn about $23,700 more; from 2x to 3x, only about $2,300 more. The extra gains are almost negligible, while the risk increases exponentially. It should be noted that this backtest uses daily rebalancing, which incurs volatility loss. This means that the final outperformance of 3x heavily depends on "the last market phase."

The most striking data is the maximum drawdown. 1x drawdown is about 50%, 2x about 86%, and 3x is approaching structural failure. Considering psychological resilience and practical risk management, this risk-reward ratio is already unbalanced.

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 14h ago

3x leverage is just betting on the last wave of the market; normally, you're just losing out on volatility... not worth it.

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tx_or_didn't_happen

· 15h ago

3x leverage is just a gambler's self-deception. Earning 2300 yuan still involves the risk of liquidation. I won't do this trade.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 15h ago

Three times leverage is risking your life for that little gain, really not worth it. --- Is a 2300 yuan difference really that important? One liquidation and it's all gone. --- Crawling on the ground haha, that's a brilliant way to put it. My three times leverage was killed off this way. --- 86% drawdown? How strong does your heart have to be to hold on? --- Spot dollar-cost averaging is truly the laziest and most stable plan, no need to watch charts every day. --- The key is that the data relies on the final stage of this market, the risk is too concentrated. --- Two times leverage is already the ceiling; going higher is just gambling. --- Thinking of my previous three times leverage, a sudden crash wiped me out completely, and I turned over a new leaf. --- The profit comparison is obvious at a glance; it's simply not worth it. --- This point about psychological resilience hit home—dropping 15% in 24 hours and risking liquidation, living like that is too exhausting.

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DeepRabbitHole

· 15h ago

This data is clear as soon as it's laid out; a 3x is basically a trap. Chasing that 3.5% return is not worth the mental breakdown. A drawdown of 86% is almost a death sentence. Do you still expect a final turnaround? I think most people have already bailed out. Doubling your investment is already exciting enough; going higher is just stubbornness. It's better to steadily invest in spot assets. The logic behind this backtest is sound; rational people should choose this way. I've seen through that 3x thing a long time ago. Not making money and sleeping poorly—it's not worth it.

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Anon4461

· 15h ago

A 3x leverage is a gambler's mentality. The data is all here, why still play? --- Climbing on the ground haha, well said, indeed better to settle for 2x peacefully --- Just earned $2,300? Risking liquidation for this small amount, brain is out of order --- Wait, maximum drawdown of 86%? Is this even investing? This is suicide --- I just want to know how many people are still holding on to 3x. Wake up, everyone --- Looking at this data, I trust spot trading more. It's slower but at least I can sleep peacefully --- Well said about volatility decay, 3x has no advantage at all --- 2x is the ceiling, anything above that is gambling

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