January 17th, 2:00 PM, BTC/USDT fluctuated only 0.07% within an hour and entered that frustrating sideways consolidation pattern again, current price 95295. Continuing to refine the approach.

The overall trend I still favor bullish. Although the hourly chart shows narrow fluctuations, the daily and 4-hour upward structures remain intact, and the reverse signals mentioned yesterday have not appeared, so the logic remains unchanged.

What does the data say? The ADX at the daily level is as high as 48.1, indicating a strong bullish signal. +DI at 29.8 significantly surpasses -DI at 10.4, and the OBV and CMF indicators show continuous inflows, providing confidence in the major trend. On the 4-hour chart, despite being in a consolidation phase with ADX only at 10.7, +DI still slightly outperforms -DI, and funds are easing in. The bad news appears on the 1-hour and 30-minute charts, where short-term cycles are completely dominated by bears, with trend strength increasing and OBV showing slight outflows. This explains why the price can't break higher—short-term cycles are dragging behind. The multi-timeframe consistency score is 59.3%, which is neutral leaning weak, indicating that the larger and smaller cycles are restraining each other.

Looking at exchange data, the sell orders dominate overwhelmingly, with a ratio of 71% to 29%. Especially on mainstream exchanges, sell orders account for over 95%, forming a strong bearish sentiment across the market. This is not a false divergence but real selling pressure. Buy orders are mainly supported by compliant platforms, but their strength is clearly insufficient.

Regarding current position and capital flow. The price is above the daily Bollinger middle band but about 9.55% below VWAP, which is a significant deviation, indicating that from a cost perspective, bears have the upper hand. On the 4-hour chart, the price is actually 5.62% above VWAP. This contradictory situation further confirms the sideways pattern. The market's greed index is at 50, fully neutral, with no extreme emotions driving the market. However, large order flow shows 100% sell orders, with a net outflow of nearly $1.2 million, which is a short-term warning signal.

My operational suggestion remains bullish, but considering the weakness on short cycles and the obvious selling pressure environment, entry should be more cautious, and stop-losses tighter. It’s advisable to build small positions gradually near key support levels and avoid chasing highs. You can buy on dips in the 95000-95200 range, with stop-loss below the important daily support at 94450, for example at 94300. The first target is 96000( hourly resistance), the second target is 96500( four hours high), and an aggressive target is 97200( daily Bollinger upper band). Given the current position isn't low and selling pressure is evident, reduce position size from the usual 15% to 8%.

Key position summary: there is major order support around 95273, and 95731 is the 1-hour MA50 resistance. Support levels below are 94446 first, then strong supports at 93612 and 93066; resistance above is 95962 first, then 96572. If the price breaks below 94450, it may directly drop to 93600 or even 93000. However, based on liquidity distribution, although sell orders are surging, as long as the daily and 4-hour upward structures are not broken, buy orders at support levels still have a chance to push upward. The current position is not the worst nor the best; patience is needed to wait for confirmation signals.

The market works this way: when bullish and bearish forces are deadlocked, and the directions of larger and smaller cycles are inconsistent, the smartest approach is often to wait and see or take small positions to test, with proper stop-loss placement, letting the market determine its own direction. Against this selling pressure, going against the trend to buy requires not only courage but also disciplined execution.