#周末行情分析

A single arrow piercing the clouds, millions of troops come to meet. This week's market moved sideways after breaking through the 92,500 resistance level, with some pullback on Friday. Looking ahead, I believe: the weekend will likely see sideways trading, which is to build momentum for the next rebound. Next week, the rebound will continue, targeting around $100,000. This weekend, you can watch whether some Chinese meme coins will rebound.
1. Technical Analysis
1. On the 4-hour chart, the market is in a correction phase after a rally, supported around the MA30, with the MACD green bars showing a decreasing trend.
2. On the daily chart, moving averages (MA) are important tools for measuring price trends. Bitcoin's price is currently above the 20-day moving average, indicating a short-term upward trend. This signal contrasts with the negative MACD (moving average convergence divergence) value (-3,408.68), suggesting that upward momentum has not yet been fully confirmed.
3. On the weekly chart, the market is in a rebound phase, with the MACD green bars shrinking at low levels. There is no significant resistance above, with the next resistance near $100,000. This level is also considered the bull-bear dividing line after the market entered a bear phase in November 2025. If reached, long positions can be taken profit.
2. News Analysis
1. Federal Reserve Economic Data and Monetary Policy:
US December CPI data unexpectedly cooled, with core CPI year-over-year growth dropping to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. The month-over-month increase was also below market expectations, indicating easing inflation pressures. Meanwhile, non-farm employment data was weak, with new jobs significantly below expectations, further confirming a cooling labor market. The simultaneous weakening of these key economic indicators has strengthened market expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed. Although the market generally expects the Fed to hold rates steady in January, the rising expectation of easing opens up possibilities for future rate cuts.
2. Geopolitical Factors:
With President Maduro's arrest, the Venezuela situation is gradually settling, and there are no signs of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Attention should now turn to Iran's developments and whether the US will conduct a special military operation. If the situation worsens, international oil prices will inevitably rise. Related tokens linked to oil prices can be monitored.
3. Which Altcoins Will Perform Over the Weekend Bitcoin Volatility?
The weekend news is relatively calm. I expect Chinese meme coins that have recently become market hotspots to rebound, especially "I’m Coming" (我踏马来了), as it is the leading Chinese meme coin and the "first to take the plunge." Hopefully, it will perform well.
4. My Trading Strategy
1. Position Allocation:
I will allocate 80% of my funds to long Bitcoin and altcoins, with 50% for long Bitcoin contracts and 50% for long "I’m Coming" spot and contracts.
2. Entry and Stop-Loss Points:
Bitcoin: Continue holding long positions, with a stop-loss around 93,000.
I’m Coming: Enter at current price to go long, with a stop-loss near 0.0209.