US policy direction has shifted. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, Trump's hints regarding the Fed Chair successor are significantly altering market expectations for the pace of future rate cuts.

Specifically, the data shows that by the end of 2026, the market now prices in an 11.8% probability of no rate cuts throughout the year. More traders are now betting on a cumulative 25 basis points (30.3% probability) or 50 basis points (32.1% probability) of rate cuts. This is a clear departure from the widespread expectations a few weeks ago.

The trigger was a recent statement by Trump. When discussing current White House National Economic Council Director Harret, he said: "I want him to continue in his current position, we'll see." While this may seem ordinary, it actually signals a key message—Trump's preferred candidate for the next Fed Chair is likely someone else.

What does this mean? The new Chair candidate could bring a different policy style, increasing market uncertainty. Traders are re-pricing accordingly, which explains the fluctuations in rate cut expectations. For those paying attention to macroeconomic trends and market directions, this is a detail worth noting.