Gold Price Analysis XAUUSD Today | Driving Factors and In-Depth Perspectives - January 13, 2569

Gold Price Overview: Reaching a New High of $4,630 per Ounce

The gold price (XAUUSD) tested a historic high of $4,630 per ounce in the past 24 hours, currently stabilizing around $4,580. This reflects a profound shift in the global financial landscape. This price movement is not caused by a single factor but results from the convergence of multiple significant events affecting investors and market participants worldwide.

Three Key Points Investors Should Watch

1. US Financial Institution Trust Crisis: When Politics Intervene in Policy

The most destabilizing event for the global financial markets is the situation where the US Federal Reserve Chairman (Jerome Powell) is summoned by the Department of Justice for criminal investigation, citing a $2.5 billion budget allocation for Fed office upgrades.

Analysts interpret this as not merely administrative but as an attempt to pressure the Fed into lowering interest rates to meet political demands. This situation signals danger to the stability of independent monetary policy in the modern era.

As investors lose confidence in the dollar’s value preservation and worry that the government might print excessive money to address debt issues ((Monetizing Debt)), central banks and global investment institutions have no choice but to shift reserves into gold to hedge risks. Gold becomes a “safe haven” asset with intrinsic value unaffected by political decisions.

2. China’s Raw Material Control and the Impact of Silver Shortages

Since January 1, 2026, China, the world’s second-largest exporter of silver ore, has implemented strict export controls, limiting exports to only 44 companies.

The side effect of this policy is that the (Silver) price surged over 7% in a single day, staying above $85. Silver’s movement is often viewed as a “Leading Indicator” (Leading Indicator) of gold price movements due to their high correlation.

More profoundly, this reflects a competition to control essential raw materials for industry, which could push global inflation in the manufacturing sector higher. In such scenarios, gold becomes an indispensable inflation hedge.

3. Tonight’s Key Data: CPI Figures and Future Interest Rate Outlook

Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US will release December’s (CPI) data, expected at 2.7% annually.

If CPI figures come in below expectations: markets will interpret this as easing inflationary pressures, providing another reason for the Fed to cut interest rates sooner (under political pressure), potentially pushing gold prices to $4,650.

If CPI figures exceed expectations: markets may worry about “Stagflation” (economic slowdown with high inflation), which, while not positive for the economy, is beneficial for gold in the long term as it preserves value during such economic conditions.

In-Depth Analysis: When Major Financial Institutions Become Targets

Fundamental Factors: Signals from the Labor Market

Although recent employment figures show an increase of 50,000 jobs, the market focuses on the downward revisions of previous months, with data from October and November combined decreasing by over 76,000 jobs.

This indicates that the US economy is slowing faster than financial institutions estimated. The risk of recession (Recession Risk) is rising, which may force the Fed to lower interest rates this year, regardless of government approval.

Geopolitical Risks: From Paris to the Arctic

Tensions with Iran are escalating, with widespread protests against the government. The US and Israel are accused of backing these protests, while leaders threaten severe measures if crackdowns occur.

The risk includes the potential blockade of the Hormuz Strait, which could lead to simultaneous spikes in oil and gold prices.

Additionally, there is US interest in rare earth minerals in Greenland, creating conflicts with Denmark and Europe. This reflects a broader phenomenon where superpowers compete for resource control, often leading to long-term commodity price increases, including gold.

Technical Analysis: Price Chart Perspective

( Technical Position from 4-Hour Candles

Testing Resistance: Gold has tested the upper boundary of the )Parallel Channel### formed by continuous upward movement, with $4,630 acting as a natural trend resistance.

Candlestick Pattern Signals: The latest morning candlestick (4-hour timeframe) turned red, signaling a potential price correction (Pullback) after a prolonged rally.

Moving Average Status: Price remains firmly above the EMA, but the wide gap suggests a possible mean reversion toward the average (Mean Reversion).

Stochastic RSI - Sell Signal: The signal line crossed downward and exited the overbought zone (Overbought), indicating short-term momentum loss.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Despite being in the high zone, the RSI trend is turning downward, aligning with profit-taking activity.

( 24-Hour Outlook

Most Probable Scenario )60%###: Consolidation Before Further Rise

Given the technical indicators show sell signals, prices are likely to dip slightly to cool off (Correction), testing support levels at $4,577–$4,580. When reaching these levels, traders should watch for reversal patterns (Reversal Pattern) on the 1-hour chart as buy signals.

Heavy Downside Scenario (10%): Negative CPI Surprise

If CPI data is worse than expected, the dollar may strengthen, leading to a sell-off in gold below key support at $4,551. In this case, traders should pause and reassess, waiting for the next support around $4,520.

Sideways Market (30%): Waiting for News

The market may not sell off heavily but could consolidate between $4,600–$4,630, awaiting tonight’s CPI data. If prices stay above $4,600, traders might attempt small profits (Scalping), but should prepare for high volatility during the news release.

( Support and Resistance Levels for Today

Support Levels )Support Levels###:

• $4,580
• $4,551
• $4,520

Resistance Levels (Resistance Levels):

• $4,600
• $4,610
• $4,620

Summary: What Should Investors Know?

Current gold prices reflect multi-dimensional risks faced by the global financial markets, from the trust crisis in financial institutions, raw material security, to geopolitical tensions.

Gold did not surge to $4,630 solely due to one issue but is the result of a confluence of fundamental and technical factors. Market participants must consider all these when devising trading strategies.