2026-01-14 11:30:56

Bitcoin finally broke through the 94,500 consolidation resistance level, and this breakout came somewhat unexpectedly. Last night, the US CPI data was released, with core CPI below expectations, immediately fueling market hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut, prompting BTC to surge rapidly.

But a calm analysis is needed here. The next significant resistance level is around 98,000, which indeed presents heavy pressure and warrants close attention. Looking further upward, the 100,000 psychological barrier cannot be ignored. In the short term, whether the rebound can break through these two levels will determine the subsequent trend.

The key question is, how long can this rebound momentum last? Historically, it is highly unlikely that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in January, as can be inferred from the pricing logic of Wall Street's interest rate markets in advance. If the Fed adopts a hawkish stance at the January meeting, this rebound could very well turn into a dead cat bounce, with 98,000 or 100,000 potentially serving as the ceiling for this phase.

From a trading perspective, if you didn't short at around 92,500 earlier, then the 94,000-95,000 range is a relatively ideal entry point for short positions. Now that the price has returned to this range, short-term traders might consider reducing their positions and observing, waiting for the price to rally again toward 97,500 before increasing their short holdings. Long-term bearish investors need not rush; they can continue holding their shorts or even add to their positions near 98,000.

This strategy is actually based on a complete logical chain: previously shorted BTC at 116,000, took profits at 80,000, and now are re-entering short positions within the 94,000 to 98,000 range. The ultimate test of this plan will be the Federal Reserve's decision at the end of January—if the Fed does not cut rates, the market is likely to experience a significant correction. At that point, the success or failure of this strategy will become clear.

In the short term, focus on CPI data, Federal Reserve statements, and the technical resistance at 98,000—these three factors will determine BTC's subsequent market rhythm.

BTC4,03%

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MidnightMEVeater

· 2h ago

Typical sandwich attack trailer, this rebound is just a feast prepared by liquidity traps for retail investors Good morning, another sleepless night in the robot paradise. The 98,000 level looks like a ceiling but is actually a corridor before the slaughterhouse If the Fed doesn't cut interest rates in January? Then this logic becomes a trap for oneself, digging a deep hole The definition of a dead cat bounce is a rebound large enough to give you hope, then a fall together—classic combo Who profits and who loses in price shocks and dark pool trading? It's always nocturnal creatures eating retail investors' time costs The range from 9.4 to 9.8 is not a good shorting point; it's the queuing area of the slaughterhouse It’s always like this—when the hope for rate cuts is ignited, someone rushes in, then in January, a hawkish turn, hilarious The real question is how many people will regret chasing at 9.75万 positions instead of 9.9万 The truth about midnight arbitrage is that, even if the technicals look perfect, robots have already eaten your order in the dark pool If this rebound can't survive past January, then all these previous ranges are just moments for institutions to send the menu

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MetaMisfit

· 4h ago

The term "dead cat bounce" is a bit harsh, but I think there's nothing wrong with it. I'm just worried that if the Federal Reserve really turns hawkish in January, our rebound will be in vain.

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AirdropJunkie