Will gold and silver still be promising in 2026? Market supply and demand dynamics and geopolitical situations are key

【BlockBeats】There is an interesting phenomenon: the precious metals market has recently started to attract attention again. The commodities analysis team at ANZ Bank has shared their view: gold and silver will perform well in 2025, but by 2026, the outlook for these two commodities still seems promising.

Why is that? There are actually several reasons. First, the external environment is uncertain—geopolitical tensions flare up from time to time, and during such periods, capital naturally flows into safe-haven assets, with gold being the most classic safe-haven asset. Additionally, two other factors are also exerting influence: debates over the independence of the Federal Reserve and issues related to US fiscal discipline. These continuously drive capital into the gold market.

The logic for silver is a bit different. Physical supply is currently quite tight, which directly leads to volatile prices. But the key point is that the market remains in a state of supply shortage, coupled with strong industrial demand, which provides substantial support for silver prices. If tariff exemption policies are confirmed and implemented, it could indeed ease some supply pressures, but the overall supply-demand imbalance cannot be changed in the short term.

The last signal worth noting is that the bank expects gold trading prices to potentially break through $5000 per ounce in the second half of the year. If this number is actually realized, it will have a significant reference value for overall asset allocation.