#我的2026第一条帖 Early this morning, the market experienced a strong surge, with Bitcoin reaching a high of $94,478 and Ethereum soaring to around $3,383. This rally was supported by increased trading volume, indicating a return of bullish momentum. Factors driving the rise include optimistic market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies and technical breakout signals. However, after the rapid ascent, short-term technical indicators have entered overbought territory. This suggests that the market may need a brief correction or consolidation to digest the gains, so chasing higher at current prices is not advisable.

Bitcoin currently shows a bullish alignment on the technical front, with the 4-hour Bollinger Bands opening upward, but the 1-hour RSI and other indicators indicate overbought conditions, signaling a need for technical correction.
Long position strategy: A more conservative approach is to wait for the price to retrace to the support zone of $93,600 - $93,800 before entering a light long position. If the pullback deepens, consider scaling into positions around the strong support area of $92,800 - $93,000. Stop-loss can be set below $92,500, with target levels at $94,500 and $95,000.
Key breakout: If the price consolidates and then breaks out with volume above the Asian session high of $94,500, it could open the way toward $95,000 and even $96,000.
Ethereum's movement is correlated with Bitcoin and remains strong, but its 4-hour technical indicators also show overbought signals, indicating short-term correction pressure.
Long position strategy: The core idea is to buy on dips. Look for opportunities when the price retraces to the support zone of $3,230 - $3,250. A more conservative entry point is around $3,180 - $3,200. Set stop-loss below $3,150, with targets at $3,350 - $3,380.
For short positions: Aggressive and experienced traders can consider a light short if the price hits the strong resistance zone of $3,380 - $3,430 and shows clear signs of resistance (such as long upper shadows). Strictly set a stop-loss of $30-$50, with a target near $3,300.
💎 Overall, after a strong breakout, the short-term trend remains bullish, but caution is needed for technical corrections. The main approach is to favor buying on dips and avoid chasing highs. Patience in waiting for the price to retrace to key support levels before entering is a more prudent strategy.
Strict risk management: Operate with small positions and set strict take-profit and stop-loss levels.
In low-liquidity environments, preventing risks from “pinning”行情 is a top priority.
Monitor variables: Keep a close eye on Bitcoin spot ETF fund flow data and broader macroeconomic indicators (such as Federal Reserve policy clues).