Bitwise Analysis: BTC may repeat the gold surge, with continuous ETF accumulation being key

Bitwise Chief Information Officer Matt Hougan recently proposed an interesting analogy: if ETF demand continues long-term, Bitcoin’s price could enter a “parabolic growth” phase, similar to gold’s performance in 2025. This view is based on a simple yet profound logic — supply and demand balance determine price, and when selling pressure is finally exhausted, prices will surge dramatically.

Lessons from Gold’s History

Matt Hougan uses gold’s actual price movements to illustrate this logic. After the U.S. confiscated Russian sovereign debt deposits in 2022, central banks around the world doubled their annual gold purchases from about 500 tons to approximately 1000 tons, maintaining that level steadily. However, this change in demand did not immediately push gold prices higher.

Why is there such a time lag? The key lies in the sellers. In previous years, the increased demand from central banks was met by holders willing to sell gold. Although supply and demand shifted the balance, prices did not surge significantly. It wasn’t until 2025 that the selling pressure from existing sellers gradually exhausted, while demand continued, leading to a 65% price spike.

Similar Turning Point for BTC

According to Matt Hougan’s analysis, Bitcoin’s relationship with ETFs is reenacting the gold story. Since the launch of the spot BTC ETF in January 2024, the purchase volume of these products has exceeded 100% of Bitcoin’s new supply. In other words, ETF buying has already covered all newly mined BTC, and additional absorption from the market’s existing supply is needed.

Current Market Conditions

• ETF Purchase Volume: Exceeds 100% of new supply
• New Supply Source: Newly mined Bitcoin produced daily
• Existing Holdings: Bitcoin held by current owners willing to sell
• Current BTC Price: $95,310.78 (up 4.71% in 24 hours)

Trigger Conditions for Parabolic Growth

Based on this logic, parabolic growth will occur when the following conditions are met:

• ETF demand persists (this is a prerequisite)
• Selling pressure from existing holders gradually depletes
• Supply cannot meet demand

Currently, existing holders are still willing to sell BTC at relatively high prices, so prices are rising but haven’t entered the “irrational” parabolic stage. However, if ETF accumulation demand continues, sellers will eventually be exhausted.

The Rationality of This Logic

The core logic of this analogy is valid: the price of any asset is determined by supply and demand. Gold and Bitcoin are assets with relatively fixed or slowly increasing supply. When demand continues to grow, price increases are inevitable.

The differences are:

• Gold: Central bank demand is political, long-term, and difficult to reverse
• BTC: ETF demand is driven by institutional investors’ allocation needs, also long-term but with policy risks

Summary

Bitwise’s analysis provides a valuable framework: current BTC ETF accumulation might still be in the “golden 2022-2024 phase,” and there could be significant room for price appreciation. But this depends on the continued demand for ETFs. Once that demand shifts, the logic will be broken. From this perspective, the key variable for Bitcoin in 2026 is not technicals or sentiment, but whether institutional capital inflows can be sustained.