Recently, there has been a turning point in the crypto market. Since January, the US index for cryptocurrencies has increased by over 8% cumulatively, and the market is gradually stabilizing. However, changes in the global financial landscape could rewrite all of this. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key variable influencing the short-term direction of the crypto market, and this cannot be ignored.

The core issue at present is: what will be the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy? This directly affects whether your BTC, ETH positions will experience a roller coaster ride. On the surface, it appears to be a dispute at the policy-making level, but behind the scenes, it relates to the market's "rise and fall code"—who can control the pace of monetary easing, who then controls the short-term market direction.

Simply put, if the Federal Reserve insists on a high-interest-rate policy, risk assets will be under pressure; if it shifts towards easing, liquidity will be ample, and capital will flow into high-risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Historical data repeatedly validates this logic: every time the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy, it stirs up waves in the crypto market.

The current core logic of the market is the expectation of monetary easing. As long as interest rate policies continue to loosen, Wall Street capital will seek yield opportunities, and mainstream cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH are expected to continue attracting funds. Conversely, if policies tighten, the selling pressure on these assets will increase.

Therefore, paying attention to the Federal Reserve's next move is more important than studying any technical analysis. The market rhythm is dominated by macro policies, and the safety of individual positions ultimately depends on the turning points of these major cycles.