The decline on January 8th indeed scared many people. BTC once dropped to 89,600, but fortunately quickly rebounded to around 91,000. This shows that not everyone is willing to keep throwing in orders at the lows.

But can this be considered the start of a new bull market? Honestly, it's still too early to tell.

From the trend, it looks more like a cycle: sharp decline → emotional release → technical rebound → continued consolidation. I personally think this is more likely a continuation of high volatility rather than a new takeoff.

Why do I think so? There are three reasons.

First, the medium-term upward trend has not been fully repaired. BTC has already fallen nearly 30% from last October's high, and the full-year 2025 ledger is still in the red. Under this structure, a direct V-shaped reversal is too difficult.

Second, the market's de-leveraging process is not yet complete. On January 8th, longs were liquidated for $128 million, which sounds huge. But this recent rebound only gained 2-4%, mostly because short sellers are rushing to close positions and cut losses, not because new funds are really flowing in.

Third, based on analyst consensus, 2026 is likely to be a "grinding" year. Downward tests may target strong support levels around 60,000 to 65,000, while upward rebounds hitting 95,000 to 100,000 will face significant selling pressure. The tug-of-war is really exhausting.

So how to respond? I personally will keep an eye on a few clues.

The movements of ETFs and institutional players are the most worth watching. The main BTC holdings are still in "lock-in" status, and long-term holders haven't let go, indicating that the true bottom is still slowly forming.

The macro rhythm is also crucial. After tax season, where will the funds flow, and how will interest rate expectations adjust? These will determine the market's next temperament.

Another factor not to ignore is new market narratives. Hot topics like AI combined with blockchain, prediction markets, etc., may not boost the market in the short term, but they are likely variables that will slowly ferment by 2026.

This current rebound, frankly, is just "after falling too much, take a break." It shouldn't be understood as confirmation of a bull market. 2026 will probably still be a mix of high volatility and slow bottoming.

The most important thing at this stage is not to bet on the direction but to survive long enough. Don't hold heavy positions, don't leverage high, and don't play yourself out. Only those who can endure until the next opportunity will have the qualification to talk about making money.