JPMorgan executives' recent remarks have dealt a blow to the market. While appearing confident on the surface, there are actually many underlying issues.
On the surface, the US economy is indeed holding up: although the labor market has slowed down, consumption and corporate investment remain strong, and with policy support, this situation can continue. Sounds good.
But here’s the problem — the market is now too optimistic and is ignoring three real troubles:
First, geopolitical instability could trigger chain reactions at any time. The current global situation is uncertain, and no one can predict what kind of shocks might occur.
Second, the old problem of inflation has not disappeared. Although it appears stable on the surface, stubborn pressures could rebound at any moment.
Finally, asset prices continue to rise but are increasingly detached from the actual economic conditions. This imbalance will eventually need correction.
In simple terms, the current data looks good, but risks are building up in the shadows. This is not a prediction of recession, but a reminder — it’s time to stay alert amid the celebration.
Should you revisit your asset allocation? No one can say where the next black swan will come from, but it’s never wrong to prepare in advance.
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JPMorgan executives' recent remarks have dealt a blow to the market. While appearing confident on the surface, there are actually many underlying issues.
On the surface, the US economy is indeed holding up: although the labor market has slowed down, consumption and corporate investment remain strong, and with policy support, this situation can continue. Sounds good.
But here’s the problem — the market is now too optimistic and is ignoring three real troubles:
First, geopolitical instability could trigger chain reactions at any time. The current global situation is uncertain, and no one can predict what kind of shocks might occur.
Second, the old problem of inflation has not disappeared. Although it appears stable on the surface, stubborn pressures could rebound at any moment.
Finally, asset prices continue to rise but are increasingly detached from the actual economic conditions. This imbalance will eventually need correction.
In simple terms, the current data looks good, but risks are building up in the shadows. This is not a prediction of recession, but a reminder — it’s time to stay alert amid the celebration.
Should you revisit your asset allocation? No one can say where the next black swan will come from, but it’s never wrong to prepare in advance.