2026-01-13 14:21:35

#2026年比特币价格展望【Global Markets Experience Sharp Fluctuations, Data Reshapes Market Expectations】

Last night's CPI data caused Wall Street to become unsettled. The US core CPI month-over-month was only 0.2%, and only 11 out of 73 economists predicted this correctly—indicating that the cooling of inflation has exceeded most expectations. The market reacted swiftly: the two-year US Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points, and the US dollar index came under pressure.

But there's an interesting contrast here. Analysts at TD Bank poured cold water on the optimism—don't celebrate too early, as the dollar's decline may be limited. FX strategist Audrey Freeman also pointed out that it's still premature to give up on the Fed turning dovish this year. In other words, the market is betting on rate cuts, but this bet is not yet final.

Even more explosive are the political developments. Fed Chair Powell faces a criminal investigation threat from the Department of Justice, and he bluntly called it an "excuse," implying that someone is trying to interfere with the Fed's independence. This is not just political noise—it could have a deeper impact on next year's interest rate decisions than the inflation data itself.

The crypto market is also oscillating in sync. Institutional players like $BTC and $ETH have been active, buying a total of 13,627 Bitcoin in a single day. The logic behind this is clear: expectations of rate cuts have stimulated demand for risk assets. Meanwhile, the Ethereum ecosystem is also advancing—Vitalik announced that the blockchain trilemma has been solved, and Grayscale's Ethereum spot ETF has begun distributing staking rewards.

However, there are also warnings within the community. ETHGas team announced a snapshot, where user eligibility will be determined by "proof of suffering," causing some participants to be cautious.

The core suspense remains: Is the market too optimistic about rate cuts? $BTC, $ETH, US Treasuries, and the dollar are all betting on the same question—when will the Fed truly pivot? Currently, the answer may be more complex than the data itself.

BTC3,24%

ETH5,11%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

7 Likes

Reward
7
3
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

LiquidatorFlash

· 22h ago

Out of 73, only 11 were correct? The data volatility is a bit outrageous. The collateralization ratio needs to be recalculated.

View OriginalReply0

CommunitySlacker

· 23h ago

The recent expectation of rate cuts has led institutions to疯狂扫货 over 13,000 Bitcoins. What does this indicate? It shows they simply do not believe in Powell's rhetoric. When political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence actually occurs, US bonds will become even more chaotic. Let's wait and see; the US dollar index will continue to fall. Don't be fooled by JPMorgan Chase. --- Damn, another rate cut, another dovish turn, and political investigations—this show keeps coming wave after wave, and ordinary people just can't keep up. --- Honestly, most institutions buying BTC now are betting that the Federal Reserve will really pivot, but this bet is quite risky. Good inflation data doesn't mean the Fed has to bow down. --- The most heartbreaking part is: only 11 out of 73 economists guessed the CPI correctly. What does this mean? It indicates that the market has completely lost control; no one can predict anymore. So why bother reading the news? Just close your eyes and go all in. --- Did Vitalik say the trilemma has been solved? I feel like Ethereum's issues are even more difficult than solving the trilemma... --- Snapshot this move—ETHGas is truly outstanding, making people feel that while they are mining profits, they also have to prove how painful it is. This logic is truly unmatched.

View OriginalReply0

ponzi_poet

· 23h ago

The expectation of interest rate cuts is probably just another trap this time. The pace at which institutions are buying coins looks too coordinated, feeling like they are digging a pit for retail investors. The political pressure on Powell is the real black swan; the data has become less important. Wait, 13,627 Bitcoins pouring in in one day? That’s suspicious, there must be a scheme behind it. Honestly, I can't believe it if the rate cut really happens. The Federal Reserve people have always been double-edged. These ecological moves by ETH sound good, but the term "proof of pain" sounds like a new term for cutting leeks. The market is betting on a rate cut but nothing is certain; this is gambling. I need to be cautious about this rally in risk assets. Inflation data is not the main issue; the key is whether Powell will be politically hijacked. That’s the real variable that determines the coin price.

View OriginalReply0