Tonight at 21:30 US December CPI is about to be released, and this data will be very critical. Market expectations and previous values are both 2.7%, but considering the comparison of oil prices in December and January, as well as the lack of significant tariff policy changes, I personally lean towards predicting the CPI will be between 2.5-2.6%, which should be positive for the market.

But here’s a question—will there really be a rate cut? According to the latest probability data from CME, the chance of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady until the end of January is as high as 95%, with only a 5% chance of a rate cut. In other words, even if CPI unexpectedly drops to 2.5%, it’s unlikely that a rate cut will actually be initiated, and that’s the key point.

So I think the upcoming trend might look like this: after the CPI is announced, positive data will attract a large number of retail investors to follow the trend and rush in, causing a short-term surge. But once the market realizes that a rate cut is unlikely, highly leveraged retail investors will face a stampede of sell-offs. Based on historical experience, there’s still a considerable probability that BTC will retrace to the 88k-85k range.

Recent trading advice remains cautious, especially for those with high leverage, to prevent being caught in a rapid reversal. If the predicted trend develops as expected, the bottom zone will be even more worth paying attention to.