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Regarding the operational direction of Bitcoin tonight, there are some differences of opinion in the current market. I have outlined the main arguments and key positions of both the longer and shorter sides for you, but please note that the Crypto Assets market is highly risky, especially in Futures Trading. The following information does not constitute investment advice, so please make sure to decide cautiously.
The following summarizes several main operational strategies in the current market, allowing you to quickly understand:
Direction of Thought Core Logic Key Position Reference (Bitcoin)
Be cautious and go long, consider buying on the pullback. It is believed that the upward trend has not changed; after breaking through key resistance, a pullback is an entry opportunity. Support levels: 117,500, 116,200, 115,000, 114,000-115,000.
Short at highs, beware of pullbacks. It is believed that prices have reached resistance, the technical aspect shows retracement pressure, and the market faces macro uncertainties. Resistance levels: 119,200, 119,500, 120,200~122,000
💡 The main factors influencing the current market
To understand these divergences, you need to pay attention to the following points:
· Macroeconomic sentiment and the dollar trend: The U.S. government shutdown has strengthened market expectations for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which some analysts interpret as positive for Crypto Assets. Meanwhile, the strength of the dollar usually has a negative correlation with the prices of Crypto Assets, which requires close attention.
· Technical signal divergence: this is the core of the differing long and short views.
· Bulls believe that Bitcoin has strongly broken through key resistance levels, opening an upward channel with strong momentum.
· The bearish side points out that the price is under pressure at key resistance levels (such as $119,450) and the daily chart shows a weakening of bullish strength, indicating a need for a technical correction.
· Key data risk: Special attention needs to be paid to the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data. This data is an important basis for the Federal Reserve's decisions. If the data exceeds expectations, it may weaken interest rate cut expectations and bring significant volatility to the market.
🛡️ Important Risk Warning
No matter which way of thinking you prefer, you must be clear:
1. High volatility and high liquidation risk: The crypto assets market is extremely volatile. On October 2nd, after Bitcoin broke through $119,000, nearly 130,000 people across the network experienced liquidation within 24 hours due to high-leverage trading, resulting in heavy losses. It is crucial to avoid using excessively high leverage.
2. Information is for reference only: The price levels and analyses mentioned above are derived from public market opinions, are time-sensitive, and may become invalid quickly.
3. Implement risk control: If trading, be sure to set a stop-loss point and strictly adhere to it.
I hope this organization can help you assess the market more comprehensively. If you are willing to share more specific trading preferences (for example, whether you prefer short-term swings or focus more on the trends of a particular time period), I can try to integrate a more focused market analysis for you.