Tesla's Robotaxi Fleet Stalled at 40 Vehicles as Stock Lags Nasdaq 100 by 31%, Analyst Questions $600 Bull Case

According to Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, Tesla's stock has underperformed the Nasdaq 100 by 31 percentage points year-to-date, with the analyst cautioning that the company's unsupervised robotaxi fleet remains stalled at around 40 vehicles.

Black questioned analyst Dan Ives' $600 bull case for Tesla, arguing the stock will continue to underperform until the autonomous-vehicle fleet scales significantly. He noted that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) efficacy currently stands at approximately 99% (one intervention per 100 drives), but needs to reach 99.99% (one intervention per 10,000 drives) before unsupervised autonomy can scale. Black added that Tesla's roughly 200x price-to-earnings ratio remains difficult to justify amid shrinking earnings and stalled autonomy development.