GLJ Research forecasts Tesla will deliver 426,017 vehicles in the second quarter, representing a 19% sequential increase and an 11% annual gain, but analyst Gordon Johnson maintains a 'Sell' rating, arguing the uptick reflects seasonal tailwinds rather than renewed demand. The forecast follows Tesla's first-quarter delivery of 358,023 vehicles, during which the company produced 50,363 more cars than it delivered, leaving excess inventory. Wall Street remains divided on the potential benefits of a merger between Elon Musk's SpaceX and Tesla, with Oppenheimer favoring separation to support diversified capital access for AI goals, while Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates an 80% to 90% probability of a 2027 merger after SpaceX's anticipated public offering.
GLJ Research Forecasts 426,017 Q2 Deliveries Amid Inventory Surplus
GLJ Research projects Tesla will deliver 426,017 vehicles in the second quarter, up 19% from the prior quarter and approximately 11% year-over-year. Gordon Johnson stated the estimate exceeds most Wall Street forecasts but falls below broader market expectations. The firm emphasized that stronger second-quarter deliveries are "not evidence that demand has re-accelerated," noting Tesla entered the quarter with excess inventory after a 4% miss in first-quarter deliveries. Johnson highlighted that the second quarter is typically a stronger period for vehicle sales, which could help boost Tesla's delivery numbers. GLJ reiterated a 'Sell' rating on the stock.
Tesla Produced 50,363 More Vehicles Than Delivered in Q1
Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in the first quarter of 2026, compared to 384,122 vehicles in the prior year. The company produced 50,363 more cars than it delivered during the quarter. Overall first-quarter deliveries were supported by a 23.5% jump in the company's China-made EV sales. Tesla shares were down 1% at the time of the report and have declined around 16% year-to-date, trading at approximately $397. Investor Gary Black noted that some retail investors may be selling Tesla stock to buy SpaceX shares.
Oppenheimer and Wedbush Clash on Tesla-SpaceX Merger Prospects
Oppenheimer stated that keeping Tesla and SpaceX separate would better support Elon Musk's long-term AI goals. The firm argued that Musk's vision "is best served by diversified, flexible access to capital" and that "having two public currencies supports that strategy most effectively." In contrast, Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has been a strong supporter of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger. Ives believes there is an 80% to 90% chance the two companies will merge in 2027 after SpaceX goes public, calling it Musk's "holy grail" because it would give him greater control over a broader AI ecosystem.
Retail Sentiment Turns Bullish on Stocktwits
Retail sentiment for Tesla on Stocktwits turned 'bullish' from 'neutral' a day earlier. One user said the stock will set off if it breaks past $414. The stock is currently trading at around $397.
FAQ
What is GLJ Research's forecast for Tesla's Q2 deliveries?
GLJ Research forecasts Tesla will deliver 426,017 vehicles in the second quarter, representing a 19% sequential increase and an 11% annual gain.
Why does GLJ Research maintain a 'Sell' rating despite the Q2 delivery forecast?
GLJ Research argues the second-quarter delivery increase reflects seasonal tailwinds rather than renewed demand, and Tesla entered the quarter with excess inventory after producing 50,363 more cars than it delivered in the first quarter.
What do analysts say about a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger?
Oppenheimer believes keeping the companies separate supports diversified capital access for Musk's AI goals, while Wedbush analyst Dan Ives estimates an 80% to 90% probability of a 2027 merger after SpaceX goes public.
