2026-05-07 09:44:20
Kalshi's Non-Farm Payroll Forecasts Show No Edge Over Economists, Average Errors Exceed 60,000 Jobs
According to Bloomberg, Kalshi traders' predictions on U.S. non-farm payroll data showed no significant advantage over Bloomberg survey economists over the past 33 months, with average forecast errors exceeding 60,000 jobs for both groups. In April 2026, when the actual non-farm payroll report showe