Nebius Group (NBIS) stock fell 17% at the close on July 2, closing at $276.17. Direct pressure came from two data points: Nebius Q1 2026 revenue of $399 million, 32.74% below market expectations; total liabilities of $15.061 billion, up 1,040.07% year-over-year, with Q1 quarterly interest expense surging from near zero to $63.7 million.
NBIS Stock Falls 17%, Reddit Sentiment Peaked on June 19
According to reports, Nebius stock fell 17% at the close on Wednesday, after closing at $276.17 the previous trading day, dropping to an intraday low of $237.02 (down 14.18%). Previously, NBIS had gained 399.13% over the past year and 229.93% year-to-date.
On June 19, 2026, NBIS sentiment on the Reddit forum r/wallstreetbets climbed to 95 (extremely bullish), driven by a post claiming to have become a millionaire through Nebius in two years; four days later, another post titled "I'm a little nervous" went viral. Between these two posts, the company itself saw no fundamental changes, only price fluctuations.
Liabilities of $15.061 Billion Up 1,040% YoY: Convertible Bonds, Lease Obligations, and Fuel Cell Agreement Size
According to Nebius' financial report, the main risk items on its balance sheet are as follows:
Convertible Bonds: Total principal of $10.04 billion, increasing to 120% of original principal at maturity; $4.34 billion added in March this year, maturing in 2031 and 2033 respectively.
Q1 Interest Expense: Surged from near zero to $63.7 million (quarterly).
Future Data Center Lease Obligations: Approximately $9.9 billion, not yet effective, with an average lease term of 11 years, commencing in 2026 and 2027 respectively.
Bloom Energy Fuel Cell Agreement: Cumulative service fees up to $2.6 billion over 10 years.
Q1 2026 Capital Expenditure: $2.473 billion, exceeding the quarter's operating cash flow.
Q1 2026 Revenue of $399 Million 32.74% Below Expectations
According to Nebius' Q1 2026 financial report, quarterly revenue was $399 million, 32.74% below market expectations. GAAP profit was $621.2 million, but included a non-cash gain of $780.6 million from the revaluation of ClickHouse; excluding this gain, adjusted net loss increased 20% year-over-year to $100.3 million.
Bullish indicators: AI Cloud revenue up 841% YoY; cost of revenue as a percentage of sales fell from 49% to 26%; remaining performance obligations were $33.59 billion; backed by a $27 billion five-year agreement with Meta and a $2 billion prepaid warrant investment from NVIDIA (NVDA).
2026 Full-Year Capital Expenditure Commitment of $16-20 Billion
According to Nebius' official guidance, full-year 2026 capital expenditure commitment is $16 billion to $20 billion, with full-year revenue guidance of $3 billion to $3.4 billion, year-end annualized recurring revenue (ARR) target of $7 billion to $9 billion, and year-end installed capacity target of 800 MW to 1 GW.
The independent market monitor for PJM Interconnection has concluded that data center load growth is the main reason for tight electricity supply and high prices in the Mid-Atlantic region; power permitting and grid interconnection backlogs are limiting factors that Nebius cannot circumvent through financial arrangements. EBITDA was negative $38.6 million, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 83x.
CoreWeave Stock Fell 12% on the Same Day: Total Liabilities of $50.814 Billion
According to reports, CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) stock fell 12% on the same day. CoreWeave Q1 2026 revenue was $2.078 billion, with an order backlog of $99.4 billion, but total liabilities were $50.814 billion and shareholder equity was only $4.759 billion; Q1 quarterly interest expense was $536 million.
CoreWeave and Nebius operate on the same model: accumulate massive order backlogs, use them as collateral for debt financing, relying on compute demand growth to continuously outpace debt growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the direct reason for Nebius stock falling on Wednesday?
According to reports and Nebius' Q1 2026 financial data, the direct trigger was Q1 revenue of $399 million, 32.74% below market expectations; structural pressure came from total liabilities of $15.061 billion, up 1,040.07% year-over-year, Q1 quarterly interest expense surging from near zero to $63.7 million, and Q1 capital expenditure of $2.473 billion exceeding the quarter's operating cash flow.
What are Nebius' 2026 capital expenditure commitments and revenue guidance?
According to Nebius' official guidance, full-year 2026 capital expenditure commitments are $16 billion to $20 billion; full-year revenue guidance is $3 billion to $3.4 billion; year-end ARR target is $7 billion to $9 billion.
How does CoreWeave's financial leverage compare to Nebius?
According to each company's financial reports, CoreWeave has total liabilities of $50.814 billion and shareholder equity of $4.759 billion, with Q1 quarterly interest expense of $536 million; Nebius has total liabilities of $15.061 billion and Q1 quarterly interest expense of $63.7 million. Both employ the Neocloud model of using high leverage to support data center expansion.
