According to a July 7 report from 21Shares, large bitcoin holders continued buying near $60,000-$64,000 in June despite the month marking the steepest decline since 2022, while the share of profitable investors fell below 50%. The firm noted that this combination of whale accumulation and widespread losses last converged during the March 2020 Covid crash and Q4 2022 FTX collapse, both periods that marked cycle bottoms.
21Shares highlighted three signals to monitor whether the bottom holds: a cooler late-July inflation print, whether bitcoin maintains support between $59,000-$62,000, and November midterm election odds, noting bitcoin has shown a -0.79 inverse correlation with Democratic sweep odds since mid-2025.