Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black on Tuesday questioned SpaceX's (SPCX) valuation after the stock erased over $650 billion in market capitalization from a peak of approximately $2.7 trillion. Black stated that SPCX was trading at roughly 150 times projected 2026 enterprise value-to-EBITDA when the stock climbed above $200, despite expectations for long-term revenue growth of 35% to 40% annually. He compared this to Nvidia, which he said trades at about 19 times calendar-year 2026 EV/EBITDA while being expected to deliver long-term revenue growth of 10% to 15% per year, arguing that 'the math doesn't math' for SPCX's premium valuation. SPCX shares were down more than 3% in Tuesday's pre-market trade after falling more than 16% on Monday.
Gary Black Compares SpaceX Valuation to Nvidia
Gary Black argued that investors are paying too high a premium for SPCX relative to its expected growth prospects. In a post on X, Black noted that SPCX was trading at roughly 150 times projected 2026 enterprise value-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) after the stock climbed above $200, despite expectations for long-term revenue growth of 35% to 40% annually.
To highlight the valuation gap, Black compared SPCX with Nvidia, which he said trades at about 19 times calendar-year 2026 EV/EBITDA while being expected to deliver long-term revenue growth of 10% to 15% per year. Using a PEG-style framework that compares valuation multiples with growth rates, Black argued that SPCX's valuation appears significantly more stretched than Nvidia's.
"The math doesn't math," Black said, suggesting that SPCX's valuation is difficult to justify based on its projected growth profile.
Susquehanna Initiates Coverage with Neutral Rating and $170 Target
According to TheFly, Susquehanna initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Neutral rating and a $170 price target, citing both the company's strong growth prospects and its demanding valuation.
The firm expects SpaceX to grow revenue at an 81% compound annual rate and EBITDA at a 76% annual rate through 2028, driven by its leadership in rocket launches and Starlink's expanding global connectivity business.
However, Susquehanna cautioned that the stock's current valuation already reflects aggressive assumptions. The firm said SpaceX's share price "requires premium multiples on very aggressive revenue and EBITDA growth assumptions" and noted that several of the markets in which the company operates remain relatively unproven.
Given the uncertainty around future outcomes, Susquehanna said there is significant risk embedded in current expectations and recommended that investors wait for a more attractive entry point.
SpaceX Launches Bond Offering to Repay Bridge Loan
SpaceX on Monday launched its first bond offering since its blockbuster Nasdaq debut earlier this month. The company said proceeds from the unsecured notes will be used primarily to repay outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility, with any remaining funds allocated toward general corporate purposes.
While SpaceX did not disclose the size or pricing of the offering, Bloomberg reported that the company is seeking to raise at least $20 billion, with most of the proceeds expected to go toward reducing its debt load.
According to its SEC filing, SpaceX had $100.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of June 19, alongside $29.1 billion in total debt.
Retail Sentiment and Stock Performance
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around SpaceX trended in the 'neutral' territory at the time of writing.
One bearish user said that they think the SpaceX shares are likely not going to the Moon, Mars, or even stay in orbit.
SPCX stock is up 3% year-to-date, while NVDA stock is up 12%. The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) is up 16% over the past 12 months, while the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (BAI) is up 101%.
The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) is up 23% during this period.
FAQ
What valuation multiple did Gary Black say SpaceX was trading at?
Gary Black stated that SPCX was trading at roughly 150 times projected 2026 enterprise value-to-EBITDA when the stock climbed above $200, despite expectations for long-term revenue growth of 35% to 40% annually.
What rating did Susquehanna assign to SpaceX stock?
Susquehanna initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Neutral rating and a $170 price target, citing both the company's strong growth prospects and its demanding valuation. The firm expects SpaceX to grow revenue at an 81% compound annual rate and EBITDA at a 76% annual rate through 2028.
Why did SpaceX launch a bond offering?
SpaceX on Monday launched its first bond offering since its Nasdaq debut earlier this month. The company said proceeds from the unsecured notes will be used primarily to repay outstanding borrowings under its bridge loan facility. Bloomberg reported that the company is seeking to raise at least $20 billion.
